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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231722
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1022 AM MST Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and breezy conditions continue through today.
Cooler, more unsettled conditions then return for the second half
of the week, with a chance of showers Thursday and again late
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...No updates for the forecast package this AM: still
expecting a more typical Spring-like day in northern Arizona with
breezy conditions this afternoon as temperatures warm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /425 AM MST/...Today...Weak ridging remains in place
over Arizona, keeping another day of warm and dry conditions in
store for Arizona. Winds do increase a tad this afternoon from the
southwest as an approaching closed-low off the Pacific draws
near. Winds should still remain fairly typical however, with gusts
generally under 20-30 mph.

Wednesday and Thursday...As the aforementioned low continues it`s
approach, heights fall and the pressure gradient begins to increase
on Wednesday. As a result, cooler and windier conditions are
expected. Peak afternoon look to top out around 25-35 mph, with some
gustier locations downwind of the terrain approaching 40 mph. Wind
should subside some overnight as the boundary layer decouples, but
areas immediately downwind of the terrain will likely remain gusty.
Stronger winds then set in on Thursday, with peak afternoon gusts of
30-40 mph expected.

While dry conditions remain on Wednesday, moisture advection begins
to increase overnight into Thursday. As a result, isolated to
scattered rain showers are expected to develop during the day
Thursday. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible during the
afternoon. However, with low-level dry air in place, this will not
be a wetting rain and a large majority of the area will remain dry.
Additionally, given the higher-based nature of these storms, brief
gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger
storm.

Friday through Monday...Drier conditions look to return for the
first part of Friday, with only a slight chance for a few
isolated showers mainly around the higher terrain of far northern
Arizona. Gusty southwest winds look to remain, with gusts of 30-40
mph likely.

As the next trough slides through the Great Basin, moisture and
upper-level dynamics increase. Thus, another round of rain and
possibly some high-elevation snow showers develop late Friday
into Saturday. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible
during the afternoon on Saturday. Ensemble members from the GEFS,
EPS, and CMCE all continue to be on the lighter side, with
rainfall amounts around 0.10-0.30 inches over the higher terrain
and less than a tenth of an inch (if anything) in the lower
elevations.

Warmer temperatures and less windy conditions look to return for the
start of next week, as zonal flow sets in behind the departing
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 23/18Z through Wednesday 24/18Z...VFR
conditions. Surface wind SSW 15-25kts gusting 30-35kts through 02Z,
then variable less than 5-10kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 24/18Z through Friday 26/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-SHSN and a few thunderstorms from around
09Z Thursday to 03Z Friday, mainly NW of a KPAN-KRQE line. Localized
MVFR in showers. Surface wind SSW 15-25kts gusting 30-35kts in the
daytime, decreasing to 5-15kts overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Continued dry and warm.
Southwest winds 15-25 mph, with gusts from 30-35 mph each day, but
mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Much cooler temperatures, especially on
Saturday. A chance of high-based showers Thursday, wetting rain is
unlikely. Mainly dry for Friday, with a better chance of rain and
high elevation snow showers on Friday night and Saturday. Isolated
thunderstorms also possible. Southwest winds continue Thursday and
Friday at 15-25 mph, with gusts from 30-35 mph, a bit lighter on
Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR/Humphreys
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff