611
FXUS66 KLOX 141008
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
308 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...13/903 PM.

Quiet weather will continue the next several days with near
to slightly below normal temperatures. Widespread night and
morning low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as
onshore flow increases. Temperatures will cool slightly through
Wednesday, then warm slightly the end of the week. Gusty winds are
likely across the mountains and Antelope Valley each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/244 AM.

The relentless May Grey pattern will continue unabated. An upper
low will transit over the area NW to SW today and Wednesday with a
very weak ridge on tap for Thursday. Day to day gradients will
change little and there will be a strong 8+ mb push to the east
and moderate 5+ mb push to the north in the afternoons.

The low cloud pattern will continue with all coasts and vlys
socked in the morning followed by decent clearing for the vlys,
slow clearing for the inland coastal areas and brief late
afternoon or no clearing for the near shore areas. Mdls do show
slightly better/faster clearing on Thursday due the ridge, but
given the strength of the onshore flow this might prove to be a
little optimistic.

The strong onshore gradients will generate gusty southwesterly
winds across interior sections, including the Antelope Valley.
However, outside of the local wind tunnels like Lake Palmdale, do
not expect any widespread advisory-level gusts for the area.

There will be some build ups each afternoon over the higher peaks
where the differential heating will generate decent instability.
Today and Thursday there is high confidence that there will only
be some CU formation today and Thu. A few Hi Rez ensemble
forceast members do show a wave moving in from the NE Wednesday
afternoon and there is a 10 percent chc that this could trigger
some TSTMs across the LA and VTA mtns.

It will be a little cooler today as hgts fall. Max temps will
change little Wednesday and then warm some as hgts rise on
Thursday. Max temps will generally be in the mid 60s to lower 70s
across the coasts and 70s through the vly. The inland areas will
be much warmer with max temps in the 80s. As it has been for the
last few day the csts/vly will be 3 to 6 degrees blo normal and
the inland areas will wind up 3 to 6 degrees above normals.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/307 AM.

On Friday the upper level ridge will peak in strength. This
should result in some slightly warmer temperatures and less
extensive marine layer clouds and fog.

An upper level low or trof will move up from the SW on Sat and Sun
and will move over the area on Monday. The hgts will low through
the period and onshore flow will increase into the moderate to
strong category again.

Look for extensive night through morning low clouds through the
period with enough present on Sunday to warrant a chance of
drizzle in the morning.

The gradients are strong enough to bring a chc of advisory level
gusts to portions of the LA mtns and the western Antelope Vly and
adjacent foothills.

There will be a decent for this time of year jet in the area on
Sunday afternoon which is always a convective worry, but right now
none of the ensembles show it having any effect. Still it is worth
watching.

Look for three days of cooling with Monday`s max temps coming in 4
to 8 locally 10 degrees below normal (vly temps only in the lower
to mid 70s)

&&

.AVIATION...14/0640Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 3400 feet with a max temp of 17 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs.

Moderate confidence in all other TAFs. Arrival time of cigs may be
off by 2 hrs. Cig hgt could be off by 300 ft. There is a 20-30
percent chance little to no clearing for coastal TAFs SBA and
south.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance cigs will
prevail through the period. Good confidence that any east wind
component will be under 5kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight category changes may be
off by 2 hours.

&&

.MARINE...14/126 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast.

For southern outer waters, there is 20-40 percent chance of Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions during the afternoons/evenings
through Thursday. Winds will be the strongest around Point
Conception and the Channel Islands.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, there is a 20-40
percent chance of SCA conditions Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon/evening.

Patchy fog is possible at times through Friday. Drizzle or light
rain is may become more likely this weekend as a weak late season
storm pushes into the region.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Munroe
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox