099
FXUS62 KTAE 122338
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
738 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

We still expect severe weather and heavy rain to be a threat to the
forecast area starting Monday and lasting through Tuesday. We have
gone ahead and issued a flood watch this evening for portions of the
area given the event could start as early as late Monday morning in
the western areas. It is possible that the watch could be expanded
in area in future updates.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A quick transition from quiet to active weather is expected during
the near-term period as a maturing storm system translates east from
the South-Central Plains. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS)
appears poised to develop ahead of this feature overnight across the
MS Valley, then dive SE towards the Northern Gulf Coast by
tomorrow morning. The MCS should be moving into a
moist/unstable/sheared environment, so severe weather and heavy
rainfall appear likely.

The SPC expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) eastward in their
Day 2 Outlook to now include all of SE AL and most of the FL
Panhandle & SW GA. All modes of severe weather are possible with
damaging gusts being the most probable threat. There is an even a
hatched area of significant or destructive wind potential (>74 mph)
outlined roughly along/east of a Dothan to DeFuniak Springs line. A
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) is in place nearly everywhere else
outside of most of the Forgotten Coast into the SE FL Big Bend. Our
Eastern Timezone counties look to get impacted most during the
afternoon hrs as the MCS pushes into Apalachee Bay towards the
evening. A relative lull in convection takes place at the end of the
period farther west, but does not seem to last long thanks to
another MCS plowing across the Northern Gulf Coast. Flash flooding
is also a distinct possibility, especially west of Apalachicola
River where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is highlighted by the WPC.

High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 80s while
overnight lows return to the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms aim to move
across the region through the short-term period as the
aforementioned storm system slowly rotates east over the OH Valley.
However, there is some uncertainty as to how convection evolves with
this round as it will be contingent on how much the airmass is
affected in the wake of the preceding MCS (e.g., stabilized rain-
cooled air, mesoscale boundary left behind).

Storm tracks are a little nebulous as well with the potential for
either storms penetrating inland or staying closer to the coast.
Given the slow-moving/quasi-meandering nature of this activity`s
Parent Low to our north and a large fetch of moist SW flow along
its trailing front, heavy rain potential will be present. A
broadbrushed Marginal Risk remains in place areawide by the SPC
while a widespread Slight (level 2 of 4) is apparent in the WPC`s
Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

Looking at temperatures have highs in the 80s for highs and upper
60s to low 70s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Weather gradually improves from west to east on Wednesday, followed
by a temporary quiet period on Thursday. By Friday, the next
storm system takes shape over the Central US and bring a potential
renewed threat for severe weather. Unsettled conditions persist
through the weekend thanks to an active zonal subtropical jet and
attendant lingering frontal boundary draped somewhere along the
Gulf Coast states. Otherwise, expect warm and mostly muggy
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across all sites before
deteriorating around 09-13z as thunderstorms roll into the area. All
sites are expected to endure thunderstorms in the late morning
through the evening hours tomorrow with a lull around the 21z
timeframe, though this is subject to change as timing is somewhat
difficult to iron out. Following the thunderstorms, KDHN and KABY
will see IFR CIGs roll into the area with MVFR at KECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Favorable boating conditions last through the overnight hours before
strong to severe thunderstorms roll across the waters as soon as
tomorrow morning. The main threats will be strong gusts,
waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Additional rounds of maritime
convection are expected Tuesday through Wednesday before
experiencing a lull late week. By Friday, we are looking at yet
another round of potentially impactful thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

An active, wet pattern will affect the Tri-State area through mid-
week, beginning tomorrow morning/afternoon. Widespread wetting rains
are expected from multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Severe weather and flash flooding appear likely. Weather conditions
improve from west to east on Wednesday, but that afternoon is slated
to be met with very high dispersions. A temporary convective lull
arrives Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

We are becoming increasingly concerned on the prospects for heavy
rainfall this week from multiple rounds of thunderstorms poised to
move through the Tri-State area. The latest forecast amounts between
Monday and Wednesday night are 1 to 3 inches with isolated 4-8
inches possible. The greatest potential is over the Wiregrass Region
towards Albany area down the western FL Panhandle. A Moderate Risk
(level 3 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall by the WPC (Day 2 Outlook) is
in place over extreme Southern MS/AL into the extreme western FL
Panhandle. An eastward expansion of this risk appears likely in
future outlooks. Flash flooding seems like a good bet for some
locations. If trends continue, they a future Flood Watch will need
to be considered. The longer- term implications are riverine
flooding depending on where the heaviest rain falls.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   66  83  70  82 /  10  80  80  90
Panama City   69  83  72  82 /  10  80  70  90
Dothan        65  80  68  81 /  20  70  80  90
Albany        64  78  67  81 /  20  60  80 100
Valdosta      65  84  69  83 /  10  60  80  90
Cross City    65  88  70  85 /   0  80  60  80
Apalachicola  72  80  73  81 /  10  80  60  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for
     FLZ007>018-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Monday for FLZ108-112.

GA...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for
     GAZ120>127-142>146-155>158.

AL...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for
     ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3