Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
329 FNUS22 KWNS 051807 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS, and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY. However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$