Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
555 FXUS65 KBOI 140231 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 831 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024 .DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough brought numerous showers and thunderstorms today, mainly over southwest Idaho, and have now exited to the east this evening. Storm activity produced strong winds in the Magic Valley, where wind gusts of around 40-55 mph were observed. A secondary weak shortwave will skirt through Idaho early Tuesday morning. Latest models suggest a wave of light showers/virga will pass over the forecast area from NW to SE during this time, but measurable precipitation is not currently anticipated with this activity. The exception will be over central Idaho mountains where isolated showers are expected to continue through at least Tuesday morning. No changes needed to current forecast. && .AVIATION...VFR with passing mid/high clouds and virga, except isolated showers continuing east of KMYL in the central ID mountains through Tuesday morning. Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less, then W-NW 5-15 with gusts 20-25 kt by Tuesday afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR with passing virga overnight. Surface winds: W-NW less than 10 kt, then increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt after 17z/Tue. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will move east of our area tonight, bringing an end to showers and thunderstorms by early this evening. However, a second upper level trough will move southeast through central Idaho late tonight into Tuesday and clip our forecast area. This will bring a 20-30% chance of showers to the eastern half of Valley County, but elsewhere it will remain dry. Gusty northwest winds will develop on the back side of the trough, strongest from Mountain Home east through the Magic Valley where gusts around 30 mph are expected. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but will still be around 5 degrees above normal. An upper level ridge will build overhead on Wednesday. This will bring dry conditions and a few degrees of warming, with locally breezy conditions continuing. LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...An upper level ridge centered off the coast will continue to bring well above normal temperatures (5-10 degrees) and dry conditions to the forecast area Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal over the weekend as an upper trough moves across the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies. Little moisture expected with this trough with only about a 15-20% chance of precipitation across Valley County and near the Nevada border Saturday/Sunday afternoon. There is general agreement that a more significant trough will move into the Pacific NW region Monday of next week with a 15-20% chance of precipitation across much of the higher terrain of SE Oregon and SW Idaho. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....TL