319
FXAK67 PAJK 052351
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 PM AKDT Sun May 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...A pattern of unsettled, rainy weather has set up and
will remain in place over Southeast Alaska for this entire short
range forecast period. Rainfall totals will result in small creek
& stream rises but will be nonetheless not impactful. Breezy
southerly conditions with gusts to 35 mph in Skagway as the front
pushes through this evening will ease overnight and return to the
10 to 15 mph winds that SEAK has been experiencing for several
days now. Similar situation for marine winds over the inner
channels - 10 to 15 kts with seas 3 ft or less. On the outside,
winds 15 to 20 kts with combined seas building to 9 ft (SW long
period swell) overnight, then subsiding north to south through
Monday.

.LONG TERM...An active weather pattern continues as system after
system moves into the panhandle, with each one bringing concurrent
chances of rain and wind across the area.

Aloft, a strong jet streak along the E flank of a trough over
the Bering Sea will keep the the primary area of upper level
support over the panhandle.

Closer to the surface, this will contribute to wave development,
bringing frontal bands into the panhandle. Lingering chances of
precipitation associated with onshore flow in the wake of a system
from Sunday and Monday will remain through Tuesday before
another, stronger system arrives late on Tuesday, lasting through
Wednesday. This second system will move up from the SW, moving
around the broader area of upper level troughing. Expect a surge
of more widespread precipitation to be possible with this system
alongside the potential for small craft winds for many locations
and gale force winds potentially in the gulf. Beyond this point
another system arrives late on Wednesday though this one will be
likely focused more on the northern half of the panhandle and the
gulf coast, bringing with it another round of rain and wind to SE
AK. Both of these systems will deliver fairly respectable rainfall
totals to the area, relative to the `dry season` which is
currently underway, though no major flooding concerns are
expected. A break in the weather is possible for Saturday, though
it is likely to prove short-lived as another system may arrive for
the second half of the weekend.

&&

Aviation...Weather front continues to march through the panhandle
today. As it does, the showers behind the front will slowly slide
into the area. Generally expect improving weather conditions from
south to north through the night. Mostly MVFR is being reported
but as the front clears the area, low end VFR is expected.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fritsch
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...GJS

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