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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 132014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
414 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy west winds continue into this evening in between strong
low pressure over Quebec, and high pressure along the Gulf
coast. The high slides off the southeast coast on Sunday,
bringing dry and very warm conditions to the local area. A weak
backdoor cold front passes through later Monday, and is forecast
to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night. A
stronger cold front crosses the area late in the week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

The latest WX analysis indicates strong occluded low pressure
(~988mb), slowly weakening across northern Quebec, with
relatively strong sfc high pressure (~1027mb) centered across
the Gulf coast region. Sunny and windy this aftn with WNW
winds quite gusty to 30-40 mph across the FA. The pressure
gradient is forecast to gradually relax through the next few hrs
should drop off modestly and then diminish significantly towards
sunset. With a westerly low level flow, downslope has helped
temperatures into the lower 70s W of the Bay and S of I-64,
with mid to upper 60s to the NE. Winds should further diminish
after sunset, so given the dry airmass in place, lows should be
able to fall to near 40F/lower 40s in the piedmont, with low-
mid 40s for most of the area, and upper 40s along the immediate
coast.

The upper flow turns more zonal for Sunday as thicknesses build over
the Mid-Atlantic. This pattern also favors warmer temps as low
level flow turns around to the SW. These SW winds Sunday will
be lighter (compared to past two days) but still gusty to 20-30
mph in the afternoon hours. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
except in the low- mid 70s on the eastern shore. Dew pts will be
higher, but likely below what NBM and the other models depict
(as is typical this time of year). See Fire WX section below as
an IFD may be needed. A weak perturbation passing through the
OH River Valley will also allow for an increase in mid/high
clouds during the aftn timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Lows Sun night will also be much milder: in the upper 50s/low
60s. Monday will be even warmer with most areas likely to see
one of the warmest days so far this year. The current forecast
has low- mid 80s for most of our VA and NC counties with upper
70s on the eastern shore. As mentioned before, continued high
clouds should keep the sky partly to mostly sunny. Also cannot
rule out a very brief shower with a moisture-starved frontal
boundary dropping S through the area. Coverage should be low
(20% or less) given low sfc moisture. Overnight lows Mon look
to be around 50F NE to upper 50s S.

The flow turns weak over the area Tuesday as ridging gradually
builds over the area. WPC progs and model guidance show the
remnant boundary from Monday pushing a bit farther S compared to
previous runs, potentially not lifting back N until later
Tuesday through Tuesday night. Light easterly flow is likely NE
of the boundary and S/SE flow SW of the boundary. Thus, there
will probably be a decent gradient in highs Tuesday, ranging
from the low- mid 80s across south central VA and interior NE
NC to the upper 60s to lower 70s close to the coast. The other
thing the mention is model soundings show a decent amount of
sfc-based instability (500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) along and SW of
this boundary with some higher dew points likely to pool where
the warmer temps reside. Therefore, there could be some pop-up
showers and thunderstorms S of I-64 given the boundary nearby.
Have painted a broad 20% PoP for most of VA, increasing to
25-30% in this region Tuesday evening. With weak shear, no
severe wx is expected. Lows Tue night low 50s NE to upper 50s
central and SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Low pressure is forecast to lift ENE through the upper Midwest
Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will also extend S/SW into
the southern states. There will tend to be more clouds
Wednesday, though precip chances will be low w/ little forcing
(some slight chc PoPs will remain over the far N closer to the
boundary). Highs in the mid 70s NE to the upper 70s to lower 80s
elsewhere. While still warm, Thu-Fri no longer look as warm as
they did a few days ago w/ less in the way of ridging over the
area. The cold front moves toward the area Friday with a
chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms. PoPs are 30-40%
at this time due to 1) models showing the front losing moisture
E of the Appalachians and 2) differences among when the front
actually crosses the area. Cooler Friday with afternoon highs in
the mid 70s to near 80F. Overnight temps will remain on the
mild side and in the 60s Wed night and 50s Thu night. Cooler
behind the front, with highs Sat in the 60s to around 70F with
lows into the 40s Sat night.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR expected through the period. Mainly SKC through Sunday
morning, with just some high clouds by Sunday aftn. Strong WNW
winds gusting to 30kt+ diminish by late aftn, and become 10kt or
less overnight. Winds shift around to the SW on Sunday, and
will gust to 20-25kt by aftn.

Outlook: Dry/mainly VFR for Sunday night into Monday, with W
winds monday shifting to the NE late in the day and E Monday
night. Isolated showers/storms possible Mon aftn/evening and
again Tue aftn/Tue night. Mainly dry Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

The pressure gradient remains compressed across the local waters
with ~990mb low pressure over Quebec and 1026mb high pressure over
the north central Gulf. Aloft, flow across the eastern half of the
CONUS is NW between deep troughing over the western Atlantic and a
broad ridge over across the Rockies. 15-25 kt NW winds with gusts 25-
30 kt continue over the waters this afternoon, especially adjacent
to and downstream of land areas (rivers, sound, and western portions
of the bay). Waves in the Ches Bay are 2-3 ft with seas 2-5 ft
(highest N with a favorable fetch off of Delaware Bay).

Expect gusty winds to continue for the next few hours before falling
off with the loss of heating/mixing toward evening. SCA headlines
remain as inherited: the southern Atlantic waters will end at 4pm
with the remainder of the waters falling below SCA thresholds around
7pm. Sub-SCA winds continue tonight through the first half of Sunday
before SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches
Bay and likely into the adjacent rivers Sunday afternoon. Local wind
probs have increased to >80% for 6-12 hours Sunday afternoon into
the early overnight period. Seas are also forecast to build back to
4-6 ft for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light Sunday
evening into early Monday morning. Will hold off on further SCA
headlines until the ongoing advisories expire.

A weakening front is forecast to drop through the area late Monday
into Monday night, with winds turning to the NE and then to the E-SE
on Tuesday (generally staying sub-SCA through this timeframe given
that it is a weakening front).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Afternoon relative humidities have dropped off into the 20-25%
range across most of the region (with a few locations down below
20%). Winds are still gusty but will be diminishing over the
next few hrs (and will then drop off rather quickly by sunset).
Today has certainly been a significant drying day, and this
could lead to some issues on Sunday as winds become gusty to
20-25 mph from the SW by late morning/aftn. Dew pts from models
tend to be too high this time of year in decent mixing
situations. Current forecast conditions are for min RH 25-35%
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...ERI/RHR
FIRE WEATHER...