Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 261351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
951 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Primarily dry conditions can be expected today under a mostly
sunny sky. A frontal system approaching from the west will
cause showers to develop tonight and persist through Wednesday.
Clouds will stick around through the end of the week with some
additional chances for rain before drier conditons come in time
for the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 950 AM EDT, the combination of low-level clouds
advancing westward from the low pressure system off the coast
and high clouds advancing eastward from an approaching low
pressure system to the west will result in a mostly cloudy day
today. There are some occasional thinning/breaks in the clouds
and this should enable temperatures to rise into the 40s to
lower 50s this afternoon, except upper 30s across portions of
the southern Greens and Berkshires. Will monitor temperature
trends throughout the day and adjust as needed. Most of the day
will remain dry. The 12z KALY sounding shows moistening of the
lower- levels, especially below 850 hPa, but dry air aloft. If
enough saturation occurs, especially east of the Hudson River,
then some patchy areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle could begin
to develop later this afternoon into this evening, pending
surface temperatures. Even where freezing drizzle occurs, little
if any accretion is expected and would likely be concentrated
only across the higher peaks.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [510 AM]...
Marine, low clouds have begun to push inland off the Long
Island and New England coasts this morning courtesy of an upper-
level low spinning in the western Atlantic. Simultaneously,
infrared imagery shows high clouds encroaching from the west as
a surface low tracks north and east through the Midwest.

Clouds will continue to spread into the region from the
southeast and the west, thicken and lower throughout the day
today as the coastal low spins within reach and the upper trough
associated with the aforementioned low in the Midwest
approaches. Generally, conditions will remain dry, though some
showers are possible in southern Vermont and the Berkshires
beginning late this afternoon as precipitation from the coastal
low moves onshore. With very weak forcing and plenty of mid-
level dry air, showers that form in these areas will be light in
magnitude and isolated to scattered in nature. However, along
with dry air aloft, a fairly deep warm nose exists in these
areas. Due to ample cloud cover, high temperatures here will
likely only reach the low to mid 30s. Additionally, with
precipitation onset looking to initiate later this
afternoon/early this evening, temperatures will likely fall to
or just below zero especially in the higher peaks of the
Southern Greens and Berkshires. Therefore, some freezing rain is
possible in these areas. However, with limited duration
(highest probability of occurrence between 22z Tuesday through
12z Wednesday) and the patchy nature of showers, impacts will be
minimal. In fact, accretions will not exceed 0.01" to 0.03".

High temperatures today will primarily be in the 40s with low to
upper 30s likely in western New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper-level troughing encroaches further throughout this evening
as the aforementioned associated low tracks into the western
Great Lakes region. Showers will begin to move into the region
beginning late tonight, though these too will be relatively
scattered and light in nature as the cold front associated with
the system weakens with better forcing remaining well to our
west. Showers will linger through the day Wednesday, however, as
the cool boundary slows and becomes stalled over the region.
Despite ample cloud cover, highs will reach the upper 40s to low
50s Wednesday with southwesterly flow maintaining our antecedent
warmer airmass.

Showers taper off by Wednesday evening, giving way to dry
conditions across the region once again. However, tranquility
will be short-lived as a coastal low developing off the
southeast coast Wednesday night begins to push northward by
Thursday morning. With Wednesday`s cold front finishing its
passage through the southeastern portion of the CWA by Thursday
morning, the aforementioned coastal system will interact with
the boundary to generate additional rain. The northwest extent
of such precipitation still retains some uncertainty, but
confidence is relatively high that the axis of heaviest rain
will remain to our south and east. It is possible that portions
of the Mid-Hudson Valley, Northwest Connecticut and the Southern
Berkshires could see higher accumulations of rain on the order
of 0.5" to 1" with the rain axis just touching into these areas.
However, precipitation should be light elsewhere should the rain
shield make a greater northwest extent. Highs Thursday will be a
bit cooler than Wednesday with temperatures expected to span the
40s with upper 30s above 1500 ft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main challenge for the long term will be focused early in the period
on the slowly exiting cold front off the eastern seaboard and
impending cyclogenesis that ensues as our southern stream trough
amplifies and results in a coastal low that tracks up the boundary.
While there is increasing confidence that a coastal low will
develop, there remains uncertainty on just how far off the coast
the front will be positioned as the coastal low tracks along it.
Probabilistic guidance coupled with where the moisture fetch is
focused within the deterministic trends still point to western New
England as having the highest probability for the western fringe of
the precipitation shield to reach Thursday night. With a tight
moisture and thermal gradient on the northwest side of the ensuing
coastal low likely, QPF amount likely drop off quickly heading into
eastern NY. We therefore confined likely POPs to southeastern
Litchfield County which should be closest to the coastal low with
chance POPs for the rest of western New England trending downwards
heading into eastern NY. Given the potential for the coastal low to
deepen rapidly, it could be become closed off into the mid-levels
Thurs night by the time it is near New England which could allow
cold enough air to wrap in on the backside supporting a changeover
to snow, especially in the higher terrain of western New England.
This was highlighted in the previous forecast and we maintained that
trend in this update with the southern Greens and higher terrain of
the Berkshires/Taconics having the best chance for a changeover.
Given this overall thinking, WPC QPF was thought to be too low as it
suggested a further east solution giving us very little QPF. In
collaboration with neighboring WFOs, we chose to use the NBM QPF
instead.

Most of the precipitation should occur Thursday night but some
precipitation may linger into early Friday if the coastal low
deepens earlier while it is still in the mid-Atlantic or even
Southeast. If it undergoes cyclogenesis earlier, it may evolve into
a mature coastal low by the time it nears the Northeast, allowing
precipitation to track further west/inland by Friday. Thus, we
linger slight chance POPs for western New England into Friday.
Otherwise, expecting northwest winds to quickly turn breezy behind
the departing coastal low and remain breezy through Saturday as the
sfc pressure gradient remains tight behind the off shore low.

Dry air advection looks to ensue Saturday as a warm front likely
remains to our south in PA with Canadian high pressure building to
its north over the Northeast. This would not only support a dry
forecast but synoptic pattern recognition shows potential for breezy
winds to combine with a dry column to raise some fire weather
concerns, especially areas west of the Hudson River where lower QPF
amounts are expected earlier in the week. Given this is for day 5,
still plenty of time to monitor trends but thought it was worth
mentioning.

Otherwise, overall temperatures will remain near normal for late
March through the long term period and our next chance for more
widespread precipitation should hold off until the beginning to the
new work week as we welcome April.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR stratus clouds continue tracking north and westward this
morning across the terminals with PSF, POU and ALB already
observing MVFR ceilings. GFL remains VFR but GOES16 night fog
channel shows this MVFR stratus deck marching north and westward
so expecting GFL to observe MVFR ceilings by 12 - 16 UTC this
morning. Once MVFR ceilings settled in, they should persist
through the reminder of the day. Some brief improvements back
to VFR cannot be ruled out at GFL and ALB but there is not
enough confidence in exact timing or duration to include a TEMPO
for VFR ceilings to return. PSF and POU likely remain MVFR the
rest of the day as low-level moisture remains trapped underneath
the subsidence inversion. IFR ceilings may develop late this
afternoon with higher confidence at PSF mainly near and after 20
UTC.

MVFR ceilings continue tonight with some patchy drizzle
developing, especially at PSF and POU, as southeast winds
advect milder air inland and aloft. There is still uncertainty
if any other sites develop IFR ceilings with POU having the
better chance compared to GFL and ALB given closer proximity to
the Atlantic but left IFR out of the TAFs for now. Forecast
soundings show enough dry air in the lowest parts of the
boundary layer that we did not include patchy fog except at PSF.
Better chance for scattered showers to develop looks to be
towards 09 - 12 UTC at GFL, ALB and POU as a boundary from the
west approaches.

Light and variable winds early this morning at POU, ALB and GFL
with breezier winds at PSF out of the east-northeast. Winds will
remain light near 5kts at GFL, POU and ALB today but remain
breezy at PSF sustained 5-10kts with gusts up to 15kts. Winds
shift out of the southwest after 06 UTC and increase up to
5-7kts at GFL and ALB ahead of the incoming boundary.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speciale


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