273
FXUS64 KAMA 010809
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
309 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Summary:

Wednesday brings yet another setup - at least the third in the past
three weeks - where critical fire weather conditions are expected
in the western Panhandles and severe thunderstorms may occur in the
east. In contrast to the past two weeks, remaining uncertainty about
severe thunderstorms does not focus on if they will develop but
where, with the late afternoon location of the dryline the primary
forecast question. Very large hail and damaging winds look to be the
primary risks but a tornado or two would be possible as well.

Details:

07z WV satellite shows west-southwesterly flow aloft over the
Panhandles and Four Corners. A larger than expected area of
convection is seen over OK ahead of a shortwave. At the surface,
dewpoints in the 50s and 60s are surging north-northwestward with
the dryline making its usual nocturnal retreat to the west -
dewpoints west of this feature are generally around 20.

Today, lee surface troughing should continue to our west, with
downslope winds continuing our trend of highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. Additionally, expect the western Panhandles to see RH
values drop into the single digits, particularly the far west
central TX Panhandle, where overnight recovery looks to be poor.
This should lead to critical fire weather conditions but, given lack
of a notable LLTR and modest mid-level winds, highly aggressive fire
behavior is not favored. In the east, expect moist advection to
continue, allowing dewpoints to remain in the 60s in many locations.
Dryline should mix eastward this afternoon with most non-NAM/GFS
guidance suggesting the eastern two columns of the TX Panhandle and
Beaver County will remain in the moist sector as peak heating is
achieved, with the NAM farther west with the moist sector and the
GFS suggesting the dryline will mix just east of our CWA. Progged
MLCAPE values are around 3000 J/kg with weaker capping than our
previous two nearly weekly similar type risks. Given this and the
overachieving convection Tuesday night, am fairly confident some
storms will develop with some chance of this occurring east of the
forecast area entirely given the GFS solution. Given progged
0-6km bulk shear of around 40 knots and the orthogonal orientation
of shear with the dryline, initial discrete supercells are
favored. Given favored rotating updrafts and steep mid-level lapse
rates of 8 C/km, very large hail to 3 inches in diameter looks to
be the primary hazard, followed by damaging winds. Hodographs
suggest a bit more near surface helicity compared to previous
runs, so there will be a risk for a tornado or two as well.

Thursday, welcome cold front pushes south through the CWA, leading
to highs mainly in the 70s. Appreciable moisture with this frontal
passage looks to largely remain to our west, so have attempted to
limit mentions of rain, particularly after noon Thursday.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Friday through Sunday...Models are trending towards a better
chance for precipitation as we head into the weekend. Friday could
see some early morning showers/storms due to the frontal boundary
stalled over portions of the FA and an embedded shortwave moving
through the Panhandles. Highs on Friday are a bit of a challenge
as cloud cover will be an issue for most of the day limiting the
heating, but there is the potential for southwest flow to kick in,
at least for the southwest Panhandles and push temperatures back
into the low to mid 80s with some clearing late in the afternoon.
Some guidance suggest that the front will remain well to the south
and while we`ll be on the cool side at the surface due to the
front, we will still have deep layer moisture and a fairly shallow
inversion aloft. Saturated soundings to the top of the inversion
early to mid Friday morning as well as a shortwave moving through,
suggests the potential for elevated storms capable of producing
large hail. Another shortwave with a cold front associated is
expected to move across the northern Panhandles Friday night and
again is expected to ignite another round of storms late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Given the elevated nature of these
storms, large hail will be the main threat. With PWAT`s around an
inch, these storms will have the potential for heavy rain as well.
A break during the day Saturday with the front through, but as we
move into Saturday evening we can expect another shortwave out of
the southwest flow to bring even more chances of storms to the
Panhandles. There is a a question as to how far that front on
Saturday will push south, and if it does take a further south
track then the storms will most likely be more in the Lubbock
area. By Sunday afternoon, most of the activity will be out of the
area or to the east. Highs on Saturday look to be in the low to
mid 70s, given the cold front, and on Sunday we can expect mid 70s
to lower 80s.

We`ll have to keep an eye on Monday as the next upper trough is
expected to move across the Panhandles, with a potentially strong
stacked jet associated. If the pattern holds, it will likely
support wind highlights, and would typically be a good Fire
Weather setup, however we still have to evaluate just how much
moisture the Panhandles will receive over the weekend, to see if
there will be any Fire Weather concerns. But highs on Monday are
expected to be in the 80s. Tuesday`s highs are suggested to be in
the 80s via NBM, however if the system pushes through as expected,
there is a bit of a pullback on the temps for Tuesday and more
likely we`ll see 70s to maybe some isolated areas reaching 80.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Primary aviation concern ahead is the potential for stratus at GUY
around 12z. At this time, confidence is too low to include a
ceiling but have continued to carry a SCT mention as a heads up.
While thunderstorms may occur in the eastern Panhandles Wednesday
afternoon and evening, at this time probability that these will
impact AMA/GUY appears too low for inclusion in the TAFs.

Ferguson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                91  54  78  50 /  10  20   0  10
Beaver OK                  89  52  77  46 /  20  20  10  10
Boise City OK              86  48  73  43 /   0  10   0  10
Borger TX                  96  55  80  51 /  10  20  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              94  53  81  49 /   0  10   0  10
Canyon TX                  92  53  79  49 /  10  20   0  10
Clarendon TX               91  57  80  53 /  20  40  10  10
Dalhart TX                 89  48  75  42 /   0  10   0  10
Guymon OK                  87  50  75  44 /  10  10   0  10
Hereford TX                92  52  80  50 /  10  10   0  10
Lipscomb TX                89  56  77  49 /  30  20  20  10
Pampa TX                   91  55  77  50 /  20  20  10  10
Shamrock TX                88  58  79  53 /  30  40  20  10
Wellington TX              87  58  81  54 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...77