441
FXUS64 KAMA 031703
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1203 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Low clouds should dissipate from west to east today.  As the low
clouds give way to sunshine, instability will increase. A minor
upper level short wave may also move across the Panhandles during
afternoon heating.  Therefore, some showers and thunderstorms may
form given the added instability, lift, and moisture.

A line of better organized thunderstorms is expected to move through
the Panhandles overnight along a cold front.  Models are in
disagreement on just how widespread the thunderstorms will be
overnight.  There are a few models that believe that the line of
storms will produce an outflow just as it moves into the Oklahoma
Panhandle.  This outflow would then move out ahead of the storms
effectively cutting off the inflow into the storms and causing them
to weaken.  At any rate, there could be some severe storms both
today and overnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats.  But certainly can not rule out a tornado.

On Saturday and Saturday night, more showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop in association with upslope flow behind the
front and an upper level disturbance.  The atmosphere may have to
have time to recover from any storms that move through tonight, so
the better chance of rain may come Saturday night.

Highs today are expected to be in the 70`s with a few 80`s in the
west.  Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the mid 60`s to lower
70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Sunday and Monday look to be the more impactful days of the long
term forecast. Rain showers and thunderstorms may continue off and
on throughout the day on Sunday. The next upper level system looks
to remain off to the north on Monday and the return of strong west
winds will bring fire weather concerns. The rest of next work week
looks to feature near to above average temperatures and dry
conditions.

A shortwave trough will continue moving across the region on
Sunday and should be east of the CWA by Sunday evening. The lift
provided by the wave should aid in developing scattered showers
and storms on Sunday. Cloud cover will decrease from west to east
during the afternoon hours and highs should be around average on
Sunday. The next H500 trough will be stronger but looks to remain
north of the area. The base of the trough looks to move over
portions of southeast Colorado into western Kansas. This would
leave most of the Panhandles on the dry and windy side. The only
exception may be the far east which could have a few showers or
storms develop later in the day. Gusty west winds are likely on
Monday and dry air at the surface will lead to fire weather
conditions for areas that have not received rainfall to aid in
greening up. Temperatures should also increase into the upper 70s
to upper 80s across the area.

Mainly zonal flow looks to prevail Tuesday through the remainder
of the extended forecast. Breezy winds are possible each of the
days along with temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Model guidance
hints that a cold front may move across the region late next week
which could bring cooler temperatures to the area.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

IFR to MVFR ceilings are present over KAMA and KDHT but should
gradually rise through the afternoon to VFR. A thunderstorm is
possible at KAMA and KDHT later this afternoon through tonight,
but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time.
Low-level wind shear is expected briefly at KGUY just ahead of the
cold front, from 06z to 09z. A cold front moves in tonight and
changes winds to the north. A return to MVFR ceilings is possible
at KAMA in the morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  68  51  74 /  40  40  70  20
Beaver OK                  49  67  48  75 /  80  20  40  30
Boise City OK              43  66  45  76 /  40  10  30  20
Borger TX                  52  71  53  78 /  50  30  60  20
Boys Ranch TX              50  70  51  79 /  40  20  60  20
Canyon TX                  51  68  51  75 /  40  40  70  20
Clarendon TX               54  69  54  71 /  40  60  80  40
Dalhart TX                 44  67  46  77 /  40  10  40  20
Guymon OK                  46  67  46  75 /  70  10  40  20
Hereford TX                52  71  51  77 /  30  40  70  20
Lipscomb TX                52  67  51  74 /  70  40  60  40
Pampa TX                   53  68  52  74 /  50  40  60  30
Shamrock TX                55  70  54  73 /  50  70  80  40
Wellington TX              55  72  54  73 /  70  70  80  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...52