425
FXUS63 KARX 052329
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
629 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers from Tuesday through Friday. Best chance
  for rain at this point is early Tuesday morning and again
  Wednesday through Thursday.

- Cooler air settles in after midweek, but overall look for
  seasonal temperatures into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Active Weather Pattern Next Week:

Shortwave ridging will be over the area through Monday. As this
ridging comes to an end, an area of low pressure will move through
the Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Convection will increase in
coverage in the Plains during the day on Monday. Eventually a line
of showers and thunderstorms will form by Monday evening across the
Central Plains. This line is expected to move through the area
during the overnight hours between Monday night and Tuesday morning.
When the line moves across the region, instability will be pretty
limited, as a couple hundred joules of CAPE is all there will be.
The trough bringing the low into the region will also become
negatively tilted as the precipitation moves into the area and
will eventually become an elongated low providing us with zonal
flow. With these things considered, as well as the timing of
when these storms arrive, no severe weather will be associated
with this line. All of the severe weather will be to our
southeast into the Ohio River Valley.

The previously mentioned elongated low is expected to stick
around through Thursday and in doing so, a couple shortwaves
will shoot off from this low and provide the area with some more
rain chances. The first opportunity is Tuesday afternoon and
into the evening. Then a small break in rain chances from
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as shortwave ridging builds
in ahead of a strengthening shortwave that will move through
Wednesday into Thursday. Model guidance shows this shortwave
stalling over our area for a little bit as the parent elongated
low shifts westward and a shortwave trough moves down from the
north. By Thursday, this shortwave will absorb into the
shortwave trough and move out Thursday afternoon. Given that
these smaller scale synoptic patterns can change, confidence is
not high in how the shortwaves and shortwave trough will
interact. There is good agreement however, that this pattern
will give the area periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend. With this northerly flow pattern, cooler
air will move through and thus temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 50s to mid 60s from Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Short term ridging making for great aviation weather again this
evening. VFR conditions prevail and will continue to well into
Monday. With one mid level wave passing by to the south and another
larger trough moving through the Great Basin as the moment, low
level flow already starting to turn more southerly to southeast. As
this next trough approaches with convection late Monday, expect
gradual lowering ceilings as initially mid and high level clouds
stream in from the southwest.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Shea