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000
FXUS61 KBGM 142355
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
755 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and a cold front will move through the region
tonight bringing a round of showers and some thunderstorms. High
pressure builds into the region Monday and Tuesday before
another low pressure system brings our next chance of showers
for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
645 PM UPDATE...

The line of thunderstorms has moved into NEPA, with a few cells
showing severe characteristics over the Wyoming Valley, with
strong winds and large hail as the main threat. These storms
should slowly move south along the cold front. Severe chances
remain for the next few hours in the Wyoming Valley with temps
remaining in the mid 70s.

Some scattered light rain showers are moving over NY, mostly
along and east of I81. These showers will continue to move
eastward and should dissipate in the next couple of hours.


345 PM UPDATE...

A band of showers and a few thunderstorms has developed across
the region late this afternoon. As this band works into NE PA by
this evening, some instability is still modeled to work into
the region. Instability looks sufficient enough to enhance the
thunderstorms to the point where hail and gusty winds are
possible. As far as modeling is concerned the 15Z RRFS appears
to have a much better handle over the NAM and the latest HRRR.

Clouds look to linger tonight with a light west to northwest
wind keeping the moisture around. Also this will limit how cool
it gets tonight with most locations staying in the 40`s and low
50`s. Sunshine should still be able to break through the clouds
in the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region with
temperatures rebounding close to 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday and most of
Tuesday night, keeping conditions dry and mild. Skies will stay
mostly sunny for most of the day, though cloud cover will increase
overnight as the next system moves in. A warm front approaches the
region Wednesday morning and passes through late in the day. Ahead
and along this front will be showers. Overnight, a cold front
approaches the region with more rain and a slight chance for
thunderstorms. Instability looks limited, so there is not a concern
for strong thunderstorms at this time.

Highs will be in the 60s both days. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the 30s and 40s but milder conditions are expected Wednesday night
as temps only fall into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM Update...

Showers continue during the daytime hours Thursday as the cold front
passes through. An upper-level low over Central Canada will drift
eastward late in the week. Prior to its arrival, there will likely
be a break as a ridge of high pressure makes a quick appearance
Thursday night into Friday morning, though have kept a chance for
showers in there for timing differences between guidance. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty as to what happens with this upper low.
With it will be a stronger cold front that brings much cooler air
into the region. Some lake showers will develop behind the front.
Despite cooler conditions, temperatures should remain warm enough
for just rain. Similarly to the previous forecast, mentionable PoPs
are present Friday and Saturday. After that, PoPs are just a slight
chance as drier conditions work into the region Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Rain and thunderstorms have mostly exited the region, with some
lingering showers expected to hang on at AVP for the next hour
or so. NW flow filling in behind the departing front will bring
some lake effect clouds and restrictions to portions of NY.

RME will have the best chance at IFR and lower restrictions as
temperatures and dewpoints fall close to each other. Winds are
also expected to flow down the Mohawk Valley, helping suppress
impacts from the local terrain.

SYR should see MVFR conditions through the night as winds bring
lake moisture into the area.

ITH also has a chance for IFR conditions later tonight as flow
off Cayuga Lake enhances the already moist surface. IFR
conditions are expected after 11Z, but they could occur earlier.
Confidence was not high enough in to start the IFR conditions
earlier for this TAF set, but signals are there for it to occur.


BGM should see some lake effect clouds cause MVFR restrictions.
Guidance is showing signals for IFR during the overnight hours,
but too much variability in the models exist to have enough
confidence to include it in this TAF set.

AVP and ELM should remain VFR through the period.


Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...JTC/MWG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...JTC