Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 290136
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
836 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing rain is expected across parts of southwest and
  central North Dakota tonight through Friday morning, with ice
  accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.

- Snow, heavy at times, is expected along and north of Highway 2
  early Friday morning through Friday afternoon, with
  accumulations around 2 to 4 inches and locally higher amounts
  up to 6 inches.

- Periodic low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for light
  snow across southern North Dakota this weekend into early next
  week, with minor accumulations possible.

- Next week will see the start of another warming and mainly dry trend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

We have elected to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for much of
central and parts of western North Dakota for tonight and
tomorrow. The southern segment, which encompasses the southern
two thirds of the advisory, is in effect from 10 PM CDT tonight
until 1 PM CDT Friday. The primary concern in this segment is
ice accumulation. While recent guidance shows the freezing rain
may not last more than a few hours at any given location,
precipitation rates could approach one tenth of an inch per
hour. Northern and eastern portions of this segment, such as
Wells County, may see more of a freezing rain/snow mix at
similar precipitation rates. The northern segment, which
includes counties along and north of Highway 2 (except Divide
and Williams) is in effect from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday. The
main concern for this segment is the potential for heavy snow,
with rates possibly exceeding one inch per hour. While some
recent HRRR runs have backed off on maximum QPF/snow amounts,
the requisite ingredients for banded/convective snowfall remain
present in model data. Even if less snow falls than expected
for the whole event, the highest snow rates are favored to occur
during peak morning travel along routes such as Highway 83
north of Garrison, Highway 2 from Stanley to Rugby, Highway 52
from the Canadian border to Harvey, and the city of Minot.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

We continue to evaluate the potential for impactful winter weather
later tonight through the day tomorrow. The main concern for tonight
is light freezing rain across parts of southwest and south central
North Dakota, while the main concern for Friday is periods of heavy
snow mainly focused over north central parts of the state where
deterministic model parameters and ensemble tools show potential
for mesoscale banding with conditional slantwise and/or upright
instability. No significant changes to the forecast or messaging
have been made with this update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A clipper system currently in the Northern Rockies will increase
clouds and southeasterly winds through the evening. Late this
evening, this clipper will enter into the area starting chances
for rain and freezing rain initially across the southwest,
spreading across much of the CWA through the night. A wintry mix
of snow and freezing rain will be possible south of Highway 2
through tonight, while areas along and north of Highway 2 are
expected to remain mainly snow. The highest confidence areas
right now for freezing rain look to be near and south of
Interstate 94. This clipper continues to push eastward Friday
morning, lingering snow in the north and a wintry mix that
attempts to change over to all snow elsewhere. Some higher res
models showing some frontal genesis in the north could provide
for some higher snowfall rates Friday morning. This combined
with the lack of freezing rain expected in these areas have
increased snow totals across the north. Meanwhile, this slightly
northern shift in QPF have lowered ice accumulations, although
the confidence in freezing rain in some of these southern areas
has increased given forecast soundings. Snow accumulations by
the time precipitation is done now look to be 1 to 4 inches
north, with some areas getting near 5 inches. Ice accumulations
look to remain less than a tenth of an inch overall. So overall
the confidence in a winter highlight is not quite there, and
will maintain the SPS for the time being. As precipitation ends
Friday afternoon and evening there could be some pockets of
freezing drizzle or mist. Confidence was not high enough to
include this in the forecast at this time, although is worth
monitoring as abundant low level moisture will linger while the
mid levels dry out. Low temperatures tonight under cloud cover
will be in the 20s, while highs tomorrow look to generally be in
the 30s. Friday night could see some lingering clouds with lows
in the teens.

This weekend, there still looks to be a surface low lee of the
Rockies try to set up somewhere in the Colorado area. Meanwhile
a surface high pushes southward out of Canada. Where these two
meet will likely set up snow or perhaps rain along a frontal
boundary until a larger trough can kick the surface low out into
the plains. Models still tend to favor the higher amounts of QPF
with the feature to be south of North Dakota, and more so in
South Dakota or perhaps even further south. That being said, NBM
still putting in 20 to 40% pops in southern ND for different
periods each day Saturday through Monday. This would likely be
all snow if any precipitation does fall. Currently this is about
a 10 to 30% of at least 2 inches of snow along and south of
Interstate 94 at any 48 hour time period this weekend into next
week. So although confidence is increase to only minor impacts
from this system, it will still be worth watching for any shifts
in track. Highs will generally be in the 30s this weekend, with
lows in the 20s. Monday may be slightly warmer yet similar.

Clusters continue to show a broad ridge setting up next week
bringing warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions. NBM
spreads are starting to come together, with a difference more
coming mid next week when some clusters try to flatten the
ridge. Overall this pattern could return temperatures to more
normal like readings, and perhaps slightly above.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

All terminals begin the 00Z TAF cycle with VFR ceilings. A low
pressure system will bring mixed precipitation into the region later
this evening, ending from southwest to northeast on Friday.
Precipitation will likely remain mostly snow across northern North
Dakota, with periods of heavy snow at KMOT reducing visibility to
LIFR levels. For southern North Dakota, precipitation will initially
fall as light freezing rain overnight before mixing with or changing
to snow Friday morning. Outside of KMOT/north central North Dakota,
confidence in significant visibility restrictions is low. But
MVFR/IFR ceilings are also expected to spread across the state from
west to east later tonight into Friday. Southeast winds will remain
breezy through the night. On Friday, a transition to lighter and
variable winds followed by increasing northwest winds is forecast to
occur from west to east.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for
NDZ002>005-010>013.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Friday for
NDZ018>023-033>036-041-042-045-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Hollan


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