537
FXUS64 KBMX 291737
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON APR 29 2024

A weak line of showers continues to inch its way towards the AL/MS
state line in advance of a diffuse cold front over the ArkLaTex.
This weakening activity is progged to move into western portions of
the area late this afternoon and into the evening hours, but for
most of the afternoon we`ll experience a mix of sun and clouds with
highs in the lower to mid 80s. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit
the instability in the atmosphere and shear values will be weak, so
severe storms are not expected. However, models are indicating an
increase in rainfall coverage overnight as the activity gets
increased upper-level support with the passage of the mid-level
shortwave trough. The corridor of showers and occasional
thunderstorms will be focused east of I-65 by tomorrow morning,
gradually shifting into Georgia through the afternoon as the trough
moves towards the Mid-Atlantic region. Some spots may get very
little rain while other locations may see 1 to 2 inches of
accumulation, but the highest amounts are expected in the northern
portions of the area. Cloud cover should gradually diminish west to
east during the day with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s
southwest to mid 70s northeast.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024

Any remaining stray showers should dissipate shortly after sunset
Tuesday night. A surface ridge axis builds in, with clear skies
and light winds promoting favorable radiational cooling conditions
across the northern counties, while still elevated dew points in
the southern counties may be conducive for fog development. Mid-
level ridging builds from the Gulf across the Southeast CONUS
Wednesday and Thursday resulting in dry conditions and warming
temperatures. A weak shortwave and increase in mid-level moisture
moves into our far western counties late Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night, but shower activity will have a tendency to dry up
as it encounters a drier low-level air mass.

Meanwhile a potent shortwave and surface low moving through the
Upper Midwest Thursday night will send a cold front our way Friday
and Friday night. A weak southern stream shortwave and increase
in mid-level moisture associated with possible MCS remnants will
bring an increase in rain chances, though low-level moisture
return and instability will be lacking. Thus PoPs remain in the
chance category for now. The front will stall out over the weekend
and eventually lift back to the north. Weak waves in quasi-zonal
flow aloft may provide some lower end rain chances as this happens
but there is little model agreement this far out.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON APR 29 2024

VFR conditions continue this afternoon but SHRA will overspread the
area this evening as a shortwave trough moves across the region.
Instability will be limited overnight, but some TSRA may affect the
terminals as well. This activity will result in IFR/MVFR ceilings
and some visibility impacts. Flight conditions will improve west
to east late in this period as the activity shifts east into
Georgia. Southerly winds will be breezy at times this afternoon
with gusts of 15 to 20 kts.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well
above critical values. Rain chances increase this afternoon
through Tuesday. Dry conditions return on Wednesday with RH values
dropping back into the 30s and low 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  77  56  85 /  90  70  10   0
Anniston    62  77  58  86 /  70  70  10   0
Birmingham  63  78  60  86 /  90  60  10   0
Tuscaloosa  64  81  60  87 /  90  40   0  10
Calera      63  78  60  86 /  90  60  10   0
Auburn      64  77  62  86 /  40  60  10  10
Montgomery  64  81  62  87 /  60  60  10  10
Troy        62  80  63  87 /  40  60  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...86/Martin