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000
FXUS64 KBMX 171954
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
254 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

This afternoon.

A closed low was centered over Central Wisconsin while shortwave
ridging was over the Central Plains and longwave ridging was well
to our east of much of the Gulf of Mexico extending northeast to
over Central Florida. A shortwave disturbance was located by
satellite over North Mississippi. A surface cold front extended
southwest from an occluded surface low across Central Wisconsin
across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley into Oklahoma where
another surface low was located across the panhandle. Surface high
pressure was centered off the Southeast Atlantic Coast.

Expect skies to range from partly cloudy southeast to mostly
cloudy west and north. Showers with some thunderstorms will
continue to affect much of our northern counties through mid
afternoon while a compact cluster of showers and thunderstorms
across East-Central Mississippi is expected to persist as it moves
east-northeast toward West-Central Alabama through early
afternoon. Winds will be from the southwest at 6-12 mph. High
temperatures will be locally affected by showers and storms but
will generally range from the mid 70s northwest to the mid 80s
southeast.

Tonight.

A more zonal flow aloft will develop over the area as more
shortwave disturbances move east over the area while mid-level
ridging becomes more confined over the South-Central Gulf of
Mexico while the potent upper low moves northeast over Northern
Michigan. Surface high pressure remains centered off the Southeast
Atlantic Coast while another surface low deepens over Kansas with
the stalled cold front draped from that low east across the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley Region and across the Eastern Ohio River
Valley.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy north and west and partly cloudy
southeast. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue to be focused generally along the
Interstate 20 corridor, affecting the north-central portion of the
forecast area with lower chances elsewhere. Winds will be from
the south to southwest at 3-5 mph. Low temperatures will range
from the upper 50s northeast to the mid 60s southwest.

Thursday.

Weak longwave ridging will temporarily rebuild over the eastern
portion of the area early Thursday afternoon while a shortwave
disturbance moves east over Eastern Oklahoma and Texas and will
approach the area later in the evening. Surface low pressure will
move northeast to near the St. Louis, MO area toward midday with a
cold front extending southwest from the low to near the
Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX metro area while surface high pressure
remains well to our southeast.

Skies will range from partly cloudy northeast to mostly cloudy
south and west with isolated showers through the morning hours
followed by isolated showers and a few thunderstorms by midday
through early afternoon. Chances for showers and storms are
expected to increase toward the evening with the approaching
shortwave where showers and storms may organize into a convective
complex to our northwest and move into the area during the night.
Winds will be from the southwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures
will be in the mid 80s areawide.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

Some of the CAMS are showing a MCS developing near the Missouri
Bootheel Thursday evening and tracking southeast. The remnants of
the MCS will likely impact north Alabama after midnight, and
increased rain chances for areas north of I-20. Expect the MCS to
be in a weakening state as it moves into north Alabama, and will
not highlight any severe threat at this time. This outflow will
leave a boundary across north Alabama on Friday. A cold front will
move into northwest Alabama Friday morning. It is unclear which
boundary will be the focus for diurnal convection, but there is
enough potential instability for some stronger storms Friday
afternoon, mainly along and north of I-20. A lull in the activity
Friday night and into Saturday morning, but the cold front will
continue to push southward and end up across far south Alabama
Saturday morning. Upper level forcing will increase along the I-20
corridor on Saturday as a short wave trough over the southwest
United States ejects eastward. Expect scattered showers and
isolated storms to increase north of the stationary cold front on
Saturday, with more widespread rain Saturday night and Sunday. The
low levels of the atmosphere north of I-85 will be rather stable
Saturday night and Sunday, with highs on Sunday ranging from the
upper 50s northwest to upper 60s near I-85. Removed mention of
thunderstorms for areas north of I-85. The rain will exit east
Alabama Sunday evening with rain free conditions Monday and
Tuesday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms so far have skirted to the north of our
northern terminals and expect that to continue through mid
afternoon with an exception for TCL where more thunderstorms in
East-Central MS are expected to track near the terminal from
19-21z. Potential is too low to carry showers or storms at any
other site through 00z but if activity persists near TCL early
this afternoon, downstream impacts at BHM/EET will be possible.
Expect more showers with a few storms this evening and overnight
with CIGS from VFR south to MVFR north. Chances for showers will
decrease early on Thursday followed by increasing potential from
BHM to EET and west, including TCl just beyond the forecast
period.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into the evening
hours across north Alabama. Max RH values overnight will be near
100 percent. Much of the area will remain dry on Thursday with
increasing rain chances late Thursday night for areas north of
I-20. Min RH values 45-55% on Thursday. 20 foot winds should be
light and variable tonight becoming south 5-7 mph by Thursday
afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  86  61  80 /  60  30  50  50
Anniston    60  86  63  81 /  60  30  40  40
Birmingham  63  85  65  81 /  60  30  40  40
Tuscaloosa  65  85  65  81 /  60  30  30  30
Calera      63  85  65  81 /  60  30  30  40
Auburn      63  84  65  82 /  20  20  10  20
Montgomery  64  85  64  85 /  20  20  10  20
Troy        62  85  64  86 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...05