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000
FXUS65 KBOI 232043
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
243 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Southwest flow
aloft continues to bring warmer air into the region, with about
10 degrees of warming compared to yesterday. Some cumulus fields
present on visible satellite this afternoon southwest of Steens
Mountain OR will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms
later this evening. Some storms will be capable of producing
wind gusts up to 40 mph, mainly across southern Harney and
Malheur Counties. CAM models have these storms transitioning
into showers later tonight, and tracking NE into southwest ID,
where have added a chance of sprinkles on Wednesday morning.
Southwest flow will continue to bring more moisture to the area
and shower and thunderstorm coverage will be higher on
Wednesday afternoon. The thunderstorms will be capable of
producing gusty winds up to 40 mph on Wednesday afternoon. The
trough exits to the east on Thursday as another Pacific trough
takes aim on the Northwest. This system is more organized and
shows better potential for showers to spread into the area by
Thursday night, especially in the higher elevations. The system
will also be accompanied by a cold front, resulting in breezy to
locally windy conditions on Thursday. Warmer temperatures are
expected today and Wednesday, averaging 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, then cooling several degrees on Thursday with the
arrival of the cold front.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...An upper level trough
will move across our area on Friday, bringing showers and cooler
temperatures. Precipitation chances will rise to 40-90%, and
cold temperatures aloft combined with strong surface heating
will result in a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
Highs drop to 3-5 degrees below normal on Friday and Saturday.
The trough will move east over the weekend as an unseasonably
deep upper level low moves across the Gulf of Alaska. Forecast
confidence beyond Sunday is low, as the handling of the trough
in the Gulf of Alaska is quite different between the ensemble
suites. Right now our area is on the interface between
temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal and 10-15 degrees above
normal depending on where the system tracks. Much cooler
temperatures and lower snow levels are possible next week if the
center of the trough off the coast moves inland, and much warmer
conditions if the trough stays west of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Increasing mid-level clouds with isolated
showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms developing over SE
OR and far SW ID after 00z/Wed. Surface winds: variable 10 kt
or less, except gusts up to 35 kt near thunderstorms. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Isolated showers on Wednesday morning, mainly NW of
terminal. Surface winds: variable 10kt or less.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA