Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 232122
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
322 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

A few strong thunderstorm cells developed over the Denver area
earlier and are now tracking over Weld County with no reports of
hail being received. Additional weak convection is evident on
satellite imagery over the mountains and Palmer Divide. There does
not seem to be sufficient CAPE left over to fuel strong storms, so
scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms should be the
rule through early evening. Will leave the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch in effect for another couple hours. Showers and cloudiness
should diminish as the sun goes down.

For tomorrow, upper level ridging over the state will cause the
atmosphere to be more stable through the afternoon. Drier air out
of the desert southwest will also be moving in. Mountain areas
should only see isolated thunderstorm activity due to the elevated
heating source of the high terrain. Temperatures across the plains
should have no problem reaching the mid 80s under mostly sunny
skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Thursday through Saturday an upper level ridge will build over the
state. Associated southwest flow will lead to warmer temperatures
with only isolated late day storms expected. Saturday it will be
warm and breezy across the Palmer Divide and South Park Regions.
Fire danger could become elevated, but highlights are not expected
at this time due to the green up of fuels.

Sunday into next week there will be additional moisture and
thunderstorm chances as a closed upper level low and its associated
trough move east into the area. Sunday night into Monday,
southeasterly winds are expected to strengthen which will allow for
moisture to be pulled back in to northeast Colorado. Tuesday models
show the best areal coverage with isolated to scatter storms over
the mountains and plains with the passage of the mid level trough
axis. Wednesday there will be west to southwest flow and enough mid
level moisture to allow for isolated storm coverage. The models are
indicating QG subsidence as the trough moves east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Satellite imagery shows additional weak convection extending back
into Park County and tracking northeastward. Less showers are
evident over the Denver metro area, but this may change over the
next couple hours. Showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms will
be possible through about 6 PM. As the sun goes down, showers and
clouds should diminish. Southerly drainage winds should prevail
overnight. Drier conditions are expected tomorrow, as upper level
ridging moves over the state. Most convection should remain capped
by warming temperatures aloft Thursday afternoon, so no aviation
impacts are expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Sullivan/Cooper
AVIATION...Dankers



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