Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 181031
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
431 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

A much calmer day is instore versus yesterday as a flat upper level
ridge develops across the area.  Cross-sections show very little
moisture so will keep a dry forecast in place.  Meanwhile the low
level pres gradient will be weaker today with lighter flow aloft.
Winds will continue to be gusty at times over the plains but not
nearly as strong as yesterday.  As for highs, readings over nern CO
will range from 55 to 60 degrees.  Tonight will be generally clear
with cool temperatures overnight.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Models have moderate southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday. It
becomes more due southerly by Thursday night. Models still have a
decent upper closed low to affect the CWA Friday into Saturday.
It`s center is over the Four corners by 21Z Friday. By 12Z
Saturday it is over southeast to south central Colorado. On
Thursday there is weak upward synoptic scale energy over the CWA.
It becomes pretty strong all day Friday into Friday evening. The
main energy with the system dives south and southeast of the CWA
by 12Z Saturday morning. In the low levels there are south-
southeasterly winds progged Thursday through Friday, with more
east and northeasterly winds for Friday night. For moisture,
Thursday starts out dry. then moisture increases from the west
through the day. It lowers and deepens Thursday evening and
overnight. Friday and Friday night cross sections have deep
moisture over all the CWA. There is a bit of CAPE indicated for
the mountains late day Thursday. There are higher CAPE values over
the mountains and foothills on Friday and Friday evening with
nothing over the plains. The QPF fields are loaded with measurable
precipitation Friday and Friday night. Models are sticking with
it not being cold enough on the plains late Friday night/early
Saturday morning for snow. For pops, 60-90%s look good during the
18Z Friday through 12Z Saturday period. For temperatures,
Thursday`s highs are 4-7 C warmer then today`s highs. Friday`s
highs are 7-11 C colder than Thursday`s. For the later days,
Saturday through Tuesday, the upper closed low is moving out on
Saturday then there is upper ridging in place Sunday and Sunday
night. Pretty strong west-northwesterly flow aloft is noted on
Monday with an upper trough to move in on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Winds will were west early this morning but may become more light
and variable by 12z. By mid morning winds will become northerly
and continue that way thru mid aftn. By late aftn they will become
more northeast and then turn southeast by early evening.
Overnight winds will be south to southeast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Fire Danger will be lower today due to cooler temperatures and
lighter winds. However humidity levels will still be rather low
with elevated fire danger over eastern Elbert and Lincoln
counties, where winds may gust up to 25 mph at times this
afternoon.

There is a brief period over elevated fire danger over the
southern CWA Thursday afternoon

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RPK
LONG TERM......RJK
AVIATION.......RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK/RJK



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