515
FXUS64 KBRO 121742 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1242 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The 500 mb shortwave that generated some convection across Deep
South Texas last night continues to move farther eastward this
morning. Will continue to mention some low rain chances across the
coastal waters for this morning. Otherwise, temperatures will
continue to warm through the period.

High temperatures today will reach into the mid to upper 90s, except
for the low to mid 80s at the beaches. Warmer temperatures combined
with a slight increase in humidity will allow heat index values this
afternoon to reach the triple digits. Low temperatures tonight are
expected to be warm, staying in the mid to upper 70s to around 80
degrees at the beaches. Monday will be very to hot as a dryline
approaches from the west. Highs on Monday are expected to range from
the 80s near the coast to the triple digits across the Rio Grande
Plains. In addition, the much  warmer temperatures and a slight
increase in humidity will allow heat index values to climb to
between 105 to 110 degrees, especially along and east of the I-
69C/US 281 corridor, Monday afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be needed
for portions of Deep South Texas Monday afternoon. The NBM
temperatures seemed a little too warm so, went with a blend of the
NBM and CONSShort.

Rain chances are expected to remain low through the period, with
most areas staying between 10 to 20 percent. The Storm Prediction
Center /SPC/ has all of Deep South Texas in a general thunderstorm
risk for today and tonight and a marginal risk for the entire area
for Monday.

Finally, continued slightly elevated seas will result in a Moderate
Risk of rip currents at the local beaches through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A weak cold front is forecast to intrude into the BRO CWFA Monday
night into Tuesday, with another weak cold front expected towards
the end of the long term forecast period. When combined with a
series of disturbances riding within a west-southwest to east-
northeast 500 mb flow, isolated to scattered convection will
result, generally in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, with
the best chance of precipitation progged for Wednesday. Above
normal daytime highs and overnight lows are also anticipated, and
highs on Thursday may require a Heat Advisory for portions of Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR with a SCT-BKN cumulus field over the entire region for the
rest of the afternoon and up until sunset. Low level clouds at
MVFR levels to develop and spread inland around or after 03Z as
the low level inversion sets up between 15-25kft. Ceilings may
approach IFR around sunrise before beginning to rise after mid
morning Monday. There is a low chance (20%) of deep convection
overnight and Monday morning. With probability low and uncertainty
of where the convection may develop will leave out of the 18Z TAF
package, however later shifts may add a mention of thunder if
convection develops in the vicinity of the TAF sites

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas
are expected through the period. A slightly enhanced pressure
gradient will support stronger winds over the Laguna Madre and
Nearshore Gulf waters today. Therefore, Operators of Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution this afternoon on the Laguna Madre and the
nearshore Gulf Waters.

(Monday Night through Saturday)
Although a couple of weak cold fronts may affect the western Gulf
of Mexico during the period, high pressure will generally prevail.
Light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas will occur,
but the strength of the winds may require a periodic Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution, especially on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  79  94  78 /  10  20  20  10
HARLINGEN               94  76  96  75 /  10  20  20  10
MCALLEN                 97  79  99  78 /   0  20  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  77 102  76 /   0  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  79  85  79 /  10  20  20  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  78  91  77 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...59-GB