350
FXUS61 KBTV 061415
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1015 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Once we clear precipitation later this morning, a couple of days
with dry and warm weather are expected Rain chances will return by
Wednesday, along with a trend towards cooler temperatures struggling
to rise above 60 over the weekend. Friday appears most likely to be
the wettest day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1014 AM EDT Monday...Temperatures are steadily climbing
across the region this morning. The only real tweak was to
slow the diurnal curve somewhat, but we`re on track for a
gorgeous day with clouds gradually scattering out at this time.
Enjoy!

Previous discussion...Scattered showers will continue to slowly
drift southward across the region through early this morning,
following alongside a weak frontal boundary. Once this feature
and its showers exit to our southeast, expect a couple of
pleasant days as ridging builds over the region. Southern areas
will hold onto at least a few clouds for a good part of the day
today, but expect widespread sunshine on Tuesday. Highs both
today and Tuesday will range from the mid 60s to the low 70s.
With a drier airmass, light winds, and clear skies, lows tonight
will be 40s in most spots, though some of the usual colder
sheltered locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom
could drop into the 30s. Patchy fog will be possible tonight as
well, mainly in the favored valley locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Monday...Tuesday night will start off with ideal
radiational cooling conditions as there will be clear skies, light
winds, and a dry airmass. Clouds will slowly overspread the region
as the night progresses so the radiational cooling will diminish as
the night goes on. Temperatures will likely drop quickly in the
first part of the night and then drop slower or stay relatively
constant in the second part of the night. Because of the initially
favorable radiational cooling conditions, blended in some MOS
guidance to lower temperatures slightly. Lows will be in the 40s
across the region. Rain showers will arrive Wednesday morning and
they should persist on and off as an approaching shortwave from the
midwest interacts with another shortwave pivoting around a large
scale trough over Eastern Canada. Some convection is possible,
particularly over northern New York, as some instability develops
develops in the afternoon. However, it looks like the strongest
instability will be to our south over central New York and below so
there will likely only be a couple non-severe thunderstorms and
convective showers here. QPF is generally between a quarter inch and
a half inch and with relatively light precipitation rates, flooding
is currently not expected. The rain showers will move out in the
late afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Monday...Active but relatively unimpactful weather
will prevail late in the week and through the weekend. The first low
moves through Thursday night into Friday and brings some rain
showers. The is low model uncertainty about how long high pressure
over Canada can keep the rain to the south. The Euro and many of its
ensembles keeps much of the day dry, especially over Vermont, while
the GFS and its ensembles favors a mostly rainy day. Therefore, kept
chance PoPs for much of the day. Regardless of what occurs on
Thursday, the low will move through Thursday night into Friday and
bring widespread showers. A secondary low will attempt to develop
off the New England coast on Friday and there might be just enough
cold air in place for there to be some snow showers on the highest
peaks. QPF should not be anything extraordinary, but with the
combination from the rain on Wednesday, there is a low chance that
some rivers reach or slightly exceed bankfull, most notably Otter
Creek in Rutland. However, there is relatively high confidence that
the flooding threat will not increase significantly. Less than a
quarter of GFS and Euro ensembles bring more than an inch of rain
for either system and most of the ones that do keep rainfall under
1.25 inches. Behind the storm, drier weather should prevail for the
weekend though a there is the chance of a few showers, mostly on
Sunday. Temperatures look to stay pretty consistent during this
period with highs and lows generally close to or slightly below
climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Currently a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings
across the region. Scattered showers will slowly cross from west
to east early in the period as a weak front pushes through, and
ceilings will remain MVFR/IFR through 14-5z. Visibilities will
occasionally be reduced 3-5SM at times in rain and fog through
15z, as well. The front exits to our southeast by 16z, and
expect gradual improvement thereafter, with ceilings lifting to
MVFR and eventually VFR at all terminals by late in the
afternoon. Patchy fog is possible at KSLK/KMPV after 07z
Tuesday, likely IFR or even LIFR. Winds light and mainly
terrain driven through early this, turning toward the
north/northwest around 5-8 kt once the front moves through, then
trending back toward light/near calm overnight.


Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Hastings