966
FXUS64 KCRP 191105
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
605 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Key Messages:

- A Elevated risk of heat related impacts from dangerous heat
  today and Monday across most of South Texas

Sfc and 500 mb ridges are over south Texas this morning with the
axis of the sfc high along the Coastal Bend so that inland is
getting the return flow off of the Gulf. This has pushed low level
moisture into the region overnight, that has been trapped under the
inversion. This moisture, evident on satellite (Nighttime
Microphysics RGB product), has steadily moved inland coincident with
the 90% Sfc RH isopleth on the RAP40 and HRRR this morning. The low
clouds are around 1000 feet with VSBYs around 4-6 miles. This will
continue until sunrise, and with some mixing and heating, the low
clouds will lift as will the VSBY over South Texas.

For the rest of the day, with persistent south to southeast flow
will continue with the high situated east along the Gulf Coast, and
sfc high situated in West Texas/northern Mexico. This will set up a
tight pressure gradient that will continue to pump warm, dry air up
from the south. Coupled with the rising 500 mb heights, high
temperatures will once again continue to range from around 90near
the Coastal Bend to 100-105 in the Rio Grande Plains.

And then like a broken record, it looks like we will go through the
same cycle, tonight and Monday. The only issue will be the winds
will be a little stronger to the east as the sfc high begins to move
more to the east, and the sfc low to the west strengthens. So will
expect another night of low clouds and light fog. Monday high
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than today as the
pattern stagnates and the heat builds up under the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing risk of heat-related impacts next week

Heat continues to be the biggest concern for the upcoming week. An
upper ridge and persistent onshore flow will keep temperatures and
moisture increasing through the week, leading to dangerously high
heat index values  by the end of the week. While daily temperatures
will continue to range from the low to mid 90s along the coast to
around 105 over the Rio Grande Plains, increasing dewpoints through
the week will lead to a Major to Extreme HeatRisk by the middle of
the week. Heat index values will range from 110-114 across most of
South Texas, with some locations reaching 115 or greater by
Wednesday. Heat Advisories will be likely each day by the middle of
the week, with Excessive Heat Warnings possible, especially by the
end of the week.

There is very low chance of showers on Wednesday and Thursday as a
shortwave passes over the area and a boundary stalls to the north.
At this time, none of the models are overly excited about rain
chances and neither are the forecasters here--but we can try to keep
some small hope alive.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VCT is the exception to the rest of the forecast area, with 1/4sm
in fog to open up this morning. The rest of the TAF sites have
IFR/MVFR CIGs and VSBYs as a low level area of moisture moved over
south Texas overnight. The cloud cover and the fog is expect to
lift by 15z as the sun begins to heat the lower portion of the
atmosphere. By 16z, all of the TAF sites should be VFR with the
dry air that will try to mix the clouds. However, it looks like we
will get into a similar situation tonight as another deck of
clouds moves in off of the Gulf and overspreads south Texas.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Weak northeasterly flow veers back onshore today and persists
through tonight increasing to moderate flow Monday. Moderate
onshore flow will persist through the end of the week, with
periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoon
across the southern bays and nearshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  76  94  78 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          92  72  93  76 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           101  77 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             96  74  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          88  77  89  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          100  76 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        94  76  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       88  79  90  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...JSL/86