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000
FXUS61 KCTP 150824
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
424 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Showers/t-storm linger over the southern tier this morning
-Mild with little to no rainfall expected through Tuesday
-Cooldown through midweek accompanied by periods of rain

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Trailing front sinking slower to the south than most hires
models indicated last night/24hrs ago. This has allowed for
isolated non-svr convection to linger over the southern tier
of CPA early this morning. Expect bulk of showers/t-storms to
be located along and south of the Mason Dixon line through this
afternoon.

Clearing across north central PA has allowed for valley fog
formation. There will be more clouds to start the day south of
I80, but overall it will be a pleasantly warm start to the week
with highs in the mid 60s across the northern mtns to around
80F in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

High pressure and low pwat air will bring mainly clear and
cooler conditions tonight into early Tuesday morning. Areas of
frost are possible across the northern tier with lows in the mid
to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast soundings now look much better for dry air mixing/lower
dewpoints on Tuesday. Another pleasantly mild day for mid April
with highs in the low 60s-70s.

High pressure will retreat into New England on Wednesday while
low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. A cold air damming
(CAD) pattern is forecast to set up over central PA and will be
enhanced by periods of rain associated with a warm front. The
main change for this period was to reduce maxT vs. NBM which has
started to level up the CAD signature.

Projected highs struggle to hit 60F across the northeast 1/2 of
the CWA. We were also not as bullish for thunder/showers given
the anticipated strong low level stability (opted for rain vs.
showers). 24hr rainfall amounts ending 12Z Thu are btwn 0.25 to
0.60 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main change to this section is cooler temperatures for Thursday.
After Thursday, several secondary cold fronts will move across
the area with cooler temperatures by late week. While the
showers will likely end by the start of the weekend, there will
be the potential for colder temperatures and frost by then.
Inserted patchy frost into the fcst for late Friday night across
the north.

No real signal for a 3 day period of much needed dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers a few thunderstorms will continue to drift south over
the next few hours, with lingering impacts (mainly with TS)
possible at JST and AOO through 08Z. After those storms clear
the region, VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours and beyond.
Scattered cumulus will develop on Monday afternoon and northwest
winds could occasionally gust to 20mph.

Outlook...
Mon-Tue...Predominantly VFR.

Tue PM...Thickening clouds, light rain and possible
restrictions developing.

Wed-Fri...SHRA/PM TSRA with brief restrictions expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Banghoff