510
FXUS63 KDDC 101631
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1131 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry and mild end to the workweek across southwest Kansas.

- Forecast trend is becoming more favorable for a wet weather
  pattern this weekend and next week.

- Probabilities of 0.5 inch of rain or more from late Saturday
  through mid Monday are increasing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

06Z surface observations and RAP upper air analysis has a large
upper low centered in Utah with west to southwest winds aloft
moving through the central plains. An area of PVA and 700 mb
shortwave has led to some light rain showers mainly in eastern
New Mexico and southeast Colorado. As the rain moves east with
lesser moisture at the surface we are just seeing a band of mid
level clouds moving into far western Kansas. Boundary layer
winds continue out of the north to northeast as a surface high
in central Wyoming and the clockwise flow around it is keeping
the winds northerly.

For today the surface high will slide into eastern Colorado and
this will lead to generally light north winds. Periods of mid to
high level clouds will move across southwest Kansas as we should
see some weak PVA and 700 mb lift across eastern Colorado and
southwest Kansas. Highs will reach into the 70s.

Tonight we shouldn`t see much movement with the upper low as it
will still be around the Utah-Arizona border. However southwest
winds at 500-700 mb and winds turning east to southeast in west
Texas will increase the moisture and upslope flow that we should
start to see a band of light rain develop in these regions.
Overall Kansas should stay dry as the winds will stay northerly
and the bulk of the higher surface moisture will stay to the
south. Clouds will be on the increase during the overnight hours
and we should see overcast skies in far southwest Kansas by
morning.

Saturday should start out dry and the latest trends in the short
and medium time framed models have the 700 mb low and increasing
moisture reaching far southwest Kansas after the noon hour. POPs
should increase after 18Z and by 21Z we will have 40-50% POPs
for areas from Liberal to Syracuse on west. Low amounts of CAPE
will negate any severe threat but there will be enough energy
for a few embedded thunderstorms. We could see rainfall totals
approaching 0.10 inch in the far southwest by sunset as Euro and
GEFS ensembles have 40-70% probabilities of 0.10 inch at
Elkhart by 00Z. More details on the widespread rain event for
southwest Kansas will be detailed in the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Medium time frame models show widespread light rain
overspreading southwest Kansas during the evening and early
overnight hours from Saturday night into Sunday as the main 700
mb lift goes from southwest to northeast. Rainfall amounts
should be around 0.10 of inch with the initial first round of
rain as probabilities of 0.10 are pretty high west of highway 83
at 50-80% and lesser as you go east at 30-50%. This particular
system will bring waves of rain as the initial forcing will
weaken after midnight and we should see a break in the rain.

Sunday morning we should see another round of rain develop as
the 700 mb low moves into eastern Colorado and stronger PVA will
lead to a deepening low. With greater forcing and ample moisture
(forecast dewpoints in the mid 50s) we will see rain increase in
coverage and intensity during the day and by mid to late
afternoon 6 hour forecast rainfall totals of 0.10-0.50 inch
become quite common across southwest Kansas. EPS has near 100%
probability of 0.10 inch during the day and 0.50 inch is 50-70%
from late afternoon Sunday through Sunday night. This lines up
with the closed low slowly moving into Kansas by early Monday
morning and the upper level winds are still trending lighter on
the south side of the low which would suggest the eastward
propagation of the low will be slow. This would be good news for
extending amounts of gentle rain across southwest Kansas as the
forcing and moisture should keep rain around southwest Kansas at
least through noon Monday and perhaps into the afternoon with
some rain developing on the backside of the low from Liberal to
Hays on east. Total QPF at this point is approaching widespread
0.75-1 inch of rain for southwest Kansas. Severe weather threat
will be low however there will be enough energy for a few
embedded thunderstorms.

Tuesday will be a dry day and then mid week chances of rain
increase again (30-40% POPs) on Wednesday. An upper level trough
and 700 mb closed low will come out of the northwest and
similar to the first system the upper level winds won`t be very
strong so a slower propagation to the east is the trend at this
point. This will keep rain chances into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with only some high
clouds. Winds will be from the north until this evening then
become light and variable.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Hovorka_42