393
FXUS63 KDVN 031723
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1223 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for
  showers and storms through next week.

- The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
  for severe storms on Saturday for portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Following yesterday`s all day rain in much of eastern Iowa
(thankfully drought areas included), and the afternoon barrage of
severe storms in far eastern McDonough county Illinois, today we`re
in store for a very pleasant day as the slow moving cold front
and moisture along it exit to the east before sunrise. Some fog
will potentially be found over the area through 8AM, but the
majority of today looks to be light winds, mostly sunny skies,
and mild temperatures in the lower to mid 70s as high pressure
moves through our northern counties.

Tonight, a quiet evening will allow for quick temperature drop off
into the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Increasing clouds are
expected overnight, as another progressive upper trof approaches
from the west. While some models are very aggressive on moisture
transport ahead of this wave, the mean is quite low on pops prior to
12Z Sunday. The EC is by far the most aggressive on this moist
transport.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Saturday remains a low confidence day within our forecast.  The
frontal precipitation appears supported by decent dynamics, but the
the timing of this front is rather early, and could be near the
Mississippi River by Noon-1pm Saturday. That early arrival may not
allow for significant heating and CAPE development ahead of the
fropa. That said, there are some slower solutions, such as the
NAMnest, and these appear to be the reason for SPC`s placement of
marginal (level 1) in our central and eastern CWA. These would be
progressive storms, and a marginal wind threat appears the be the
mode of any severe weather, with mainly small hail resulting from
the limited instability. Following the fropa out of the area by
afternoon, the threat for rain and storms will end.

Another chilly night is expected Saturday night, with lows in the
40s to lower 50s, but Sunday, much like today, appears to be
seasonally pleasant in the lower 70s.

Global models are in good agreement that a large upper trof will
build into the Midwest in the Monday through Wednesday time frame.
This should sweep another dynamically supported warm advection band
of showers and storms through our area centered on Monday night
into Tuesday. The quick flow aloft, and progressive boundary
should keep QPF totals from being problematic, with most spots
well under 1 inch in the NBM/WPC mean.

Seasonally pleasant temperatures are forecast through Wednesday,
with a bit of a cool down by late week, as the upper trof deepens
over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR will continue today and tonight before a cold front approaches
from the west on Saturday. The front will bring MVFR/IFR
ceilings and a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms by
the mid to late morning west of the Mississippi River. Held off
on thunder mention in the TAFs for now due to low confidence on
storm coverage.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Uttech