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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 251144
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
544 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Strong winds and blowing dust this afternoon as a Pacific moves
across the Southern Rockies. The strongest winds will occur
during the afternoon hours across portions of south central New
Mexico. Breezy to windy conditions will continue through Saturday
before quiet weather returns Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Windy conditions area wide today, with strong afternoon gusts,
blowing dust, and high fire danger being the main weather hazards.
Rapid intensification of a 987mb surface low in eastern Colorado
will begin late this morning in response to an upper trough
progressing over the southern Rockies. 500 mb jet streak around 80
knots will cross directly over El Paso mid-afternoon, with deep
boundary layer mixing to 600 mb. Trough axis passage is timed
well with peak mixing, especially right up the US-54 corridor from
El Paso up to northeast New Mexico.

Model guidance has been consistent with winds speeds the past few
runs and ensemble performance of the jet streak track and timing
has been very good. West-southwest winds with sustained speeds of
25 to 35 mph with peak gusts around 50 mph will be most common
across the New Mexico and Texas lowlands. Mountain ridges and east
slopes will see slightly higher gusts, perhaps 60 mph. Thus, Wind
Advisories have been issued for much of the area excluding far
western New Mexico (near the Arizona state line where winds will
likely be weaker). High Wind Warnings are out for the Sacramento
Mtns and San Andres east slope zones, including Cloudcroft,
Mayhill, and WSMR. These are the locations most likely to see
gusts exceed 60 mph, between noon and 5PM today.

Blowing dust and extreme fire danger are also considerations for
this afternoon. Expect a response from dust sources in northern
Chihuahua roughly around 11 AM today. Dust modeling shows the main
plumes affecting El Paso and Hudspeth Counties, with more patchy
and localized sources causing reductions in visibility to southern
New Mexico. Visibility may fall to 1 to miles in places this
afternoon, improving again by the evening hours. Winds will
diminish after sunset, with only lingering gusts along mountain
east slopes.

Friday looks to be a lull in the winds as a jet streak exits and
a duel-low trough sets up. Conditions will remain breezy but
likely not needing any headlines. Secondary lobe within the
prevailing trough pattern across the Western US will reach us on
Saturday, leading to more windy conditions and possible blowing
dust during the daytime hours. Winds expected to finally settle
down Sunday into next week as the polar jet streak shifts
northward.

No major weather concerns early next week. Continued dry
conditions with a warming trend allowing highs to reach 90 degrees
in El Paso again by next Tuesday. Models suggest the approach of
the dryline again midweek, and low-end PoPs exist along the
eastern fringes of Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Right now any
storm chances look to be confined to the east of El Paso with dry
weather prevailing along the Rio Grande corridor and southwest
New Mexico at least into early May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Strong winds and blowing dust impacting local terminals this
afternoon. Winds increasing out of the WSW roughly around 16Z late
this morning. Sustained speeds of 25 to 35 knots with gusts up to
55 knots likely during the early afternoon hours. Winds expected
to peak mid-afternoon (21-23Z). Blowing dust affecting mainly
KELP, with 2-4 mile VIS through the afternoon and temporary IFR
VIS. Possible VIS reductions to KDMN/KLRU as well. Skies SKC
today. Surface winds diminishing after sunset, becoming 270-290 at
08-15 knots overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Critical to extreme fire weather conditions expected today,
perhaps the most severe of this season so far. Low humidity with
min RH 7-15% will combine with much stronger west-southwest winds
of 30 to 40 mph across much of southern New Mexico and far west
Texas. ERCs showing dry and primed fuel conditions across the
lowlands, with fuel moisture closer to normal over the high
terrain. Red Flag conditions beginning around the noon time hour
and continuing through sunset. Rapid fire behavior will occur with
any active fire, especially in regions of high grassland, brush,
or forest coverage.

Critical fire conditions are expected to linger into Friday and
Saturday afternoons, with subsequent Red Flags being issued for
portions of south-central New Mexico and far west Texas in the
coming forecast packages. Today certainly looks to be the most
severe, with Friday/Saturday being more borderline with winds
reaching critical thresholds. Winds subside Sunday into next week,
with continued dry weather. No precipitation expected the rest of
the month.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  86  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            84  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               83  48  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               81  45  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               58  33  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    77  47  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              67  40  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   79  45  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                75  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       83  53  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                88  48  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             90  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               79  48  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   88  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             81  48  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           82  53  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            79  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    80  45  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 80  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                80  46  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  71  40  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                68  38  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 68  35  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  68  37  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                74  41  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                77  42  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             67  36  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   72  38  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    73  42  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               68  40  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                  71  41  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   75  43  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  76  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           76  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               70  42  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for TXZ418>424.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for NMZ403-406>411-414-417-426-428-429.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for NMZ415-416-427.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NMZ112.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt