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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211734
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1134 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Cooler conditions expected for today as somewhat moist east flow
persists behind a backdoor front. More typical spring-time weather
returns for much of the week, involving warmer temperatures, dry
air, and increasing winds later in the period, resulting in higher
fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

As a surface high shifts south into the Southern Plains, more
low-level moisture is being nudged into our area early this AM. Low
stratus is seeping into eastern areas, currently developing in the
Huecos. El Paso should stay mostly clear with patches of low
stratus developing before clearing out later in the morning. A
weak shortwave trough will skirt just to our south later today
from the west, bringing some high clouds for the afternoon and
evening. This feature may have enough forcing to trigger a few
sprinkles in the Gila Region during the afternoon but will
otherwise have minimal impact.

For Monday-Tuesday, weak ridging builds in, allowing temperatures
to rebound to above normal and flush out the surface moisture.
Winds shift to southerly and then WSW by Tuesday as the ridge
starts to push eastward. Deeper southwest flow takes over for
Wednesday ahead of an upper low moving into SoCal, resulting in
breezier winds.

Timing of this system seems to be a touch slower compared to
yesterday`s model runs with the trough passing through NM Thurs
afternoon instead of the morning according to the GEFS mean. This
track and progression is a bit better for a windy day. GEFS mean
keeps the lee cyclone at 995mb Thursday PM with a decent pressure
gradient across the CWA. 850mb winds are maybe slightly stronger
than yesterday`s runs, near 30kts, as the Pacific front rolls
through during the day. 20-30 mph sustained with gusts near 40 mph
seems like a good bet for Thursday; wind headlines are unlikely to
be posted if these trends hold. Blowing dust will be a concern as
well on Thursday.

For Friday, zonal flow takes over for a brief period (15-25 mph
sustained) in advance of our next wind storm. Compared to this
time yesterday, the second system looks slower and deeper, which
would hint at both next Sat and Sun being breezy to windy days.
Rain chances will be low for each system, especially Thursday`s.
The deeper nature of next weekend`s storm gives hope for a slight
chance of precip, but probably not for the lowlands. Temperatures
will be knocked down a degree or two each day for the second half
of the week as longwave troughing sits over the Western US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Generally VFR conditions with SCT250. SCT-BKN080, mainly over the
mountains. Additionally...along the east slopes of the Sacramento
and Guadalupe Mtns...BKN-OVC015 patchy 3SM BR. Clouds continuing
to slowly erode away. Surface winds east/southeast 10-15G23 knots.
Winds slowly diminishing this evening to 7-10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low through Monday, then increasing
later this week. Some of the surface moisture brought in by the
cold front will reach western areas this morning, allowing min
RHs to mostly climb above critical levels. Winds shift southerly
for Monday as the pressure gradient loosens and high pressure
drifts away to the east. We dry out from Tuesday onward as winds
shift to westerly. Winds increase a bit as well with 20-ft winds
near 15 mph Tues-Wed, resulting in mostly elevated fire weather
according to our RFTI grids.

Two upper troughs then move through the region late in week,
increasing winds to critical levels (20-25 mph at 20-ft) starting
on Thursday. RFTI rises to mostly near-critical category as fuels
continue to dry, including in the mountains. There`s a medium-high
chance of red flag conditions heading into next weekend. There
will be little to no chance of precip with these two systems.

Min RHs will be 25-45% today east of the Rio Grande, 15-25% west;
15-30% everywhere Monday; then 7-15%. Vent rates range from poor
to good today, fair to excellent Monday, then mostly excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75  51  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            64  43  78  54 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces               78  47  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               75  43  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               54  34  59  43 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    76  49  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              72  44  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   78  46  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                78  49  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       74  50  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                66  40  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             73  45  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               64  42  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   75  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             73  46  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           74  48  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            75  42  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    78  44  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 77  49  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                70  44  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  59  35  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                65  37  70  47 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 61  34  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  71  42  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
Hillsboro                75  43  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                75  42  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             74  41  78  46 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   74  42  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    81  47  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               78  47  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  73  43  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   79  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  78  47  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           79  47  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               76  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner