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000
FXUS64 KEWX 211840
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
140 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

West-northwesterly flow aloft is now in place across Texas and
surface high pressure continues to build into the region. We`ll
begin to see the northeasterly surface winds diminish this evening
as a high pressure center moves closer and we lose mixing with the
loss of heating. Some lower level cloud cover will limit the
temperature drop tonight along the Rio Grande; otherwise, the
remainder of the area should see lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s
by sunrise on Monday. Winds will become southeasterly during the day
Monday as the high pushes east, though moisture return will be
mostly delayed until Tuesday morning. Therefore, tomorrow should be
very pleasant with highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A warming trend will be expected across South-Central Texas through
midweek with increasing humidity levels as dew points rise back into
the upper 60s by Thursday. Mid-level ridging remains centered over
Mexico to our south-southwest through that timeframe providing west-
northwesterly winds aloft across the region. The light to moderate
onshore south to southeasterly flow will usher in the increasing low
level moisture levels. Clouds will increase as a result with perhaps
some occasional morning drizzle/mist/fog with the moisture trapped
underneath the capping inversion. Afternoon highs return to the mid
to upper 80s by Thursday afternoon for most locations while lower
90s make a return along the Rio Grande. The overnight lows will also
climb back into the mid to upper 60s and low 70s entering Thursday
morning as well.

The flow aloft becomes more west-southwesterly during the last half
of the day on Thursday into Friday as an upper level system advances
across the Four Corners region and eventually eastward towards the
Central Plains. Development of a surface low ahead of this system
will tighten the pressure gradient from Thursday afternoon and into
Friday. This will result in an uptick in the south-southeasterly
winds across the region. A dryline makes some eastward progress on
Friday into our western zones. This could provide just enough spark
for perhaps the slight chance of convection across the region for
Friday into Friday evening. The dryline persists across the western
areas into the weekend as a second upper level system takes shape
and advances into/across the Four Corners region. This could yield
to another slight chance for convection across our region into
Sunday. High temperatures continue to soar into and through this
weekend with upper 80s and 90s becoming even more common across the
area. We`ll also closely monitor of possible elevated fire weather
conditions out west in wake of the the dryline beginning Friday as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with the only
possible exception being a stratus deck around 3 kft near KDRT Monday
morning. Otherwise, just some mid and high level cloud cover across
the area. Breezy NE winds this afternoon will weaken this evening,
then turn SE on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              50  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  47  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     48  74  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            48  71  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           58  76  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        46  71  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             48  73  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        48  73  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   49  72  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       51  73  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           51  73  56  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Gale
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...Gale