Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
000
FXUS64 KEWX 271721
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
An upper level trough will move overhead today. A surface boundary
moving west near the Rio Grande early this morning will reverse
course and move back east aided by the upper level trough this
afternoon. These features will generate isolated to widely scattered
showers. Steep mid level lapse rates (8.5 C/km) and elevated
instability (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) at peak heating should allow
for isolated thunderstorms along and east of the surface boundary
this afternoon into evening. There is a potential for them to be
strong to severe over our Central Texas counties. Meanwhile,
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue west of
the surface boundary. See the Fire Weather Section below. There will
be enough cloudiness to keep temperatures below normal.
Lighter winds, low dewpoints, and clearing skies enable efficient
radiational cooling for well below normal low temperatures tonight.
Southerly winds return on Thursday, however moisture and temperature
recovery will be delayed until after the short term. High
temperatures remain below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
The long term period will be dominated by zonal flow aloft and
southeasterly flow in the low levels through the weekend. This will
mean dry weather with warming temperatures. Low temperatures Friday
will be near normal while highs will be a few degrees above normal.
Temperatures will increase a few degrees each day reaching their peak
Monday when both lows and highs will be well above normal. Highs
Monday may approach records over the western half of the CWA where
they will range from the upper 80s to upper 90s. A pattern change
will begin during the day Monday as an upper level trough moves
through the southwestern states and brings southwesterly flow over
TX. At the surface a cold front will move through west TX reaching
our western border by the evening. The front will move through our
CWA Monday night and bring low chances for showers and thunderstorms
to much of the area. Models show no rain chances for the Rio Grande
and southern portion of the CWA. Cooler air will move in behind the
front and highs Tuesday will be around ten degrees lower than Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
An area of light rain has moved mostly east of the TAF sites with a
break in the precip expected. Seeing some cumulus clouds developing
in the Hill Country and this could bring some possible shower and
thunderstorm activity back to the I35 sites late this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period
with mostly southerly flow at the I35 sites and westerly flow at DRT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Dry and breezy conditions continue across western areas of South
Central Texas in the short term. Minimum humidities in the teens to
lower 20s are expected each afternoon. West-northwest winds at 10 to
20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are expected today, then southeast at 10
to 15 mph on Thursday. Fire danger and fuel moistures (dryness, 10
and 100 hour fuels) focus on Val Verde, Edwards, and Kinney counties
where another Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be issued for
today and possible for Thursday. However, there are chances of
wetting rains early this morning that may provide some relief.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 48 77 54 79 / 20 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 44 77 53 79 / 20 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 46 79 53 80 / 10 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 45 76 53 77 / 20 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 49 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 44 76 53 78 / 20 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 45 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 44 77 52 80 / 10 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 47 75 54 78 / 20 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 48 79 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 48 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...18
Long-Term...05
Aviation...29