779
FXUS65 KFGZ 042355
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
455 PM MST Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Winds will continue to increase overnight, peaking on
Sunday, and remaining gusty through much of the week. Isolated
showers near the Arizona-Utah state line on Sunday with most areas
remaining dry. Temperatures will cool slightly on Sunday but warm
back up through midweek. Another trough will keep temperatures
cool for the second half of the week but conditions will remain
dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Look for a strong but mainly dry low pressure system
to swing across Arizona tonight and on Sunday. The primary impact
of this system will be very strong winds. Winds will strengthen
overnight across much of northern Arizona as the low approaches.
Before midnight, mainly along and northwest of a line extending
from Prescott to Flagstaff to Page, southwest winds in the 20 to
30 mph are forecast. Gusts to near 50 mph are possible over and
to the northeast of higher terrain features. After midnight,
similar winds spread eastward to the New Mexico border. During the
day Sunday stronger winds really kick in with widespread
sustained southwest winds at 30 to 40 mph gusting to over 60 mph,
primarily from the Mogollon Rim northward where a High Wind
Warning has been issued. Further south winds will gust to around
40 mph with a Wind Advisory for the higher elevation locations of
Yavapai County. The low will bring with it dynamics for upward
motion and draw in limited moisture for a slight chance of showers
from about Flagstaff northwestward Sunday afternoon and evening.
Cooler on Sunday with the passing low and associated cold front.

For Monday through Saturday...The current low exits the state on
Monday to be replaced by another dry and weaker low on Tuesday.
As a result, pressure gradients will remain elevated for afternoon
winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph on Monday then strengthen
to 20 to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph on Tuesday with the passing
low. Other than turning a bit cooler on Wednesday behind the low
temperatures will climb to near normal with northwest to west
winds as 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 05/00Z through Monday 06/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions with strengthening winds and increasing clouds. By
Sunday afternoon, southwest winds sustained at 20 to 35 knots
will gust 35 to 55 knots. Areas of blowing dust may reduce
visibility at KINW, KSJN, and KRQE. A few showers are possible
along and north of a KCMR-KFLG-KRQE line Sunday afternoon and
evening.

OUTLOOK...Monday 06/00Z through Wednesday 08/00Z...Showers and
areas of blowing dust will wind down Sunday evening, yielding
widespread VFR conditions for the rest of the period. Southwest
winds gusting 30 to 50 knots Sunday evening will weaken and turn
more westerly. On Monday, expect west winds 10 to 20 knots with
gusts of 20 to 30 knots. On Tuesday, expect west winds 15 to 25
knots, with gusts of 25 to 35 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday...Southwest winds
gusting 20-35mph will continue this afternoon and overnight. Winds
will dramatically increase Sunday morning to 40 to 55 mph, with
favored downsloping areas gusting to 65 mph. Minimum RH on Sunday
will be 10 to 20% across northeast Arizona which will lead to
periods of critical fire weather conditions over NE Arizona Sunday
afternoon and early evening. Winds will decrease on Monday, but
remain elevated with west winds gusting to 25-35 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...West-southwest winds will remain
seasonably strong each afternoon through Thursday with widespread
gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Expect afternoon min RH of 10 to 15%, and
overnight RH of 25 to 45%. No precipitation is expected through the
period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 6 AM MST /7 AM MDT/ to 9 PM MST /10 PM
MDT/ Sunday for AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM MST Sunday for AZZ008.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MST Sunday for AZZ114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff