Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
000
FXUS64 KFWD 241806
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
106 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/
Windy conditions will persist through the afternoon as a dynamic
upper trough moves into the Plains. At the surface, a 987mb low
was located over southeast Colorado with a tight pressure gradient
throughout the Plains. A dryline is sharpening across West Texas
with dewpoints steadily climbing throughout North Texas. Generally
overcast skies prevail at this hour, but deeper mixing is
scattering out some of the cloud cover, particularly across our
western counties.
As the lead shortwave ejects into the Central Plains this evening,
the dryline will race eastward and approach our western counties
with an axis upper 50s dewpoints just ahead of it. Modest mid
level lapse rates of 7.5 C/km yields about 500-750 J/kg of surface
based instability. This instability is quite low given the dynamic
strength of this system, but low and mid level shear profiles are
strong. The latest high-resolution guidance is in consensus with
isolated thunderstorms developing late this afternoon/evening
along the dryline and moves them into our west/northwest counties
between 6-10 pm. These situations are tricky though because the
strong shear will oftentimes rip apart developing updrafts in the
presence of weak instability, so it remains to be seen if these
storms can actually develop. If they can, then they would be
accompanied by a severe hail and wind threat.
Better storm chances will arrive later this evening when strong
forcing for ascent from a secondary shortwave overspreads North
Texas and additional thunderstorms develop along the Pacific
front/dryline. These will quickly move east across the region
tonight with the strongest storms accompanied by a damaging wind
threat. Low level wind fields will remain strong through the
overnight hours, so any bowing linear segments will pose the
greatest threat for damaging winds. Given the strong low level
shear, there will also be a non-zero threat for embedded tornadoes
within the line, but a lack of more robust instability should
limit this threat. Storms will move east through the overnight
hours and exit the region Monday morning.
Increasing southwesterly winds can be expected behind this system
on Monday which will allow most areas to warm into the 70s prior
to the arrival of a cold front Monday evening. There is a low
chance that a few elevated showers/storms could develop along this
front Monday evening, but we`ll keep chances at 10% or less for
now. Much cooler conditions are expected Monday night behind the
front with temperatures falling into the 30s and lower 40s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 311 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/
/Monday Night and Beyond/
The cold front will have pushed through most of Central Texas by
late Monday evening. Brisk north-northwesterly winds will usher in
temperatures in the mid-30s to mid-40s by Tuesday morning. A
chilly day is expected on Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-
to upper 50s north of I-20 and the low to mid-60s south of I-20
(roughly 10-15 degrees below-average for this time of year). On
Wednesday, a rapidly-progressing mid-level shortwave will round
the base of broadscale troughing finally pushing toward the
eastern CONUS. Isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible
during the day Wednesday as this compact system quickly shifts
overhead. A dry layer of air beneath ~5000-6000 ft will likely
keep rainfall totals on the lighter side (generally less than
0.10"). Steepening mid-level lapse rates will lead to areas of
200-400 J/kg MUCAPE and increase the potential for a few lightning
strikes with this activity Wednesday afternoon.
As this system shifts to the east, broad mid-/upper-level ridging
will set-up over the Plains and keep a dry forecast over North and
Central Texas through at least Saturday. Winds will turn
southerly, and a warm-up will ensue into the latter portions of
the week. Expect afternoon highs in the low 70s by Thursday with
highs approaching 80 degrees by Friday and Saturday. Long-range
guidance is hinting at another frontal system approaching North
Texas early next week in the Day 7-8 timeframe which could
increase rain chances across the region. Currently, ~50% of the
ECMWF ensemble members and ~65% of the GEFS members show
measurable precipitation over North Texas early next week.
Langfeld
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Widespread MVFR cigs are in the process of scattering out this
afternoon with VFR expected to prevail into the evening along with
continued gusty southerly winds. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop off to the west/northwest of the D10 airspace this evening
and become more numerous by midnight. A line of thunderstorms
will likely move through the major airports between 11 pm and 2 am
with the potential for wind gusts to 40 kt. Intermittent MVFR
cigs may also accompany the precipitation.
All of this activity will move east of the airports early Monday
morning with VFR prevailing. Southwest winds will increase to
20 kt by midday Monday across the region ahead of a cold front
Monday evening.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 56 73 41 59 / 10 100 30 0 0
Waco 70 56 72 41 61 / 5 90 40 0 0
Paris 65 54 68 38 57 / 20 90 80 0 0
Denton 69 53 72 36 58 / 20 90 10 0 0
McKinney 68 55 72 38 58 / 20 100 40 0 0
Dallas 69 57 73 41 60 / 20 100 40 0 0
Terrell 68 55 71 40 58 / 20 90 70 0 0
Corsicana 70 58 74 43 61 / 5 90 70 0 0
Temple 70 55 74 41 63 / 5 90 40 0 0
Mineral Wells 72 52 73 37 61 / 10 100 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>093-100>104-
115>119-129>134-141>145-156-157-159.
&&
$$