470
FXUS65 KGGW 020222 AAA
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
822 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...

EVENING UPDATE: 8:15 PM, Wednesday

KEY MESSAGES:

- *** Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the higher
  elevations of the Little Rocky Mountains in southwestern
  Phillips County from 11 PM tonight through 4 PM Friday.

- Cold front Thursday morning brings rain and snow showers with
  isolated thunderstorms. The chances for rain and snow showers
  continue through Friday.

- Nighttime temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas
  tonight through Friday night.

- Another round of rain showers are expected next week, starting
  late Sunday. Some places could receive about an inch late Monday
  into Monday Night.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A slow moving upper level low pressure system near the US/Canada
border will finally lift northeast away from the area late Friday.
This will allow for a break in the action before another upper
low moves in on Sunday.

Look for isolated showers and thunderstorms late today to
diminish this evening then more widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms to move in Thursday. It will be a cool day, and cool
enough that snow levels will lower for at least a mix in the
Little Rockies of southwest Phillips County, lesser of a chance
for the remainder of Phillips and northern Valley counties.

Temps then warm into the weekend before the next low moves in.

This next system moves in from the west and closes off nearby
Monday/Monday Night. The deterministic forecast is calling for an
inch of rain for the eastern and central zones. This should be
beneficial as April was drier than normal for these areas.
Temperatures will not be as cool as with the current system. TFJ

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Confidence is high on the showers behind the cold front on
Thursday but whether it will be rain or snow showers at a given
point and time will depend on temperatures. Low confidence on the
possibility of thunderstorms on Thursday. Medium confidence the
rain/snow showers continuing through Friday.

High confidence on the dry weather on Saturday and rain mainly on
Monday that lingers through most of next week. Lower confidence on
amounts and timing of the rainfall. TFJ/BLM


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0215Z (8:15 PM, Wednesday, May 1st)

FLIGHT CAT: VFR, becoming MVFR to borderline IFR by Thursday mid-
day.

DISCUSSION: A few leftover scattered rain showers tonight, will be
re-enforced with a cold front and more showers into Thursday
morning mixing with snow during the coldest hours of 4 AM to 10
AM. Thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday afternoon.

WIND: From the west and southwest at 5 to 10 kts tonight through
Thursday morning. Then from the the northwest at 15 to 20 kts
during the afternoon and evening hours, with some stronger gusts
possible near the stronger storms.

----BMickelson


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM MDT Friday for Southwest
Phillips.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow