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000
FXUS65 KGJT 140952
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
352 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect temperatures well above normal again today along with
  increased afternoon winds gusting 25 to 35 mph across much of
  the region.

- Bigger changes arrive Monday as the next storm emerges from
  the Intermountain West bringing mountain snow and valley rain
  Monday and Tuesday.

- Monday will be much cooler followed by a slow warmup the
  remainder of the week. Moisture moving through the zonal flow
  aloft looks to keep a threat of showers over the Northern
  areas through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Satellite imagery shows the models are in general running about six
hours ahead of observations with the European ensemble running
behind the other models and most closely matching GOES imagery. This
imagery places the low about 100 miles off the California Coast
level with Santa Cruz, with a lobe of energy just rolling under the
low and onto the coastline. The circulation of the low is pushing
the moisture in the low into the Sierra Nevada Range, but the coma
tail wrapping around the low is pulling deep moisture north across
northern Baja and Southern California into the Great Basin. Models
are in good agreement with the main low tracking inland mostly along
a line from just south of Santa Cruz southeast to Las Vegas through
today. Strong divergence aloft over the northern Great Basin
develops a second low along the Oregon-Idaho-Nevada Border that gets
drawn south into the main low by this evening as it tracks over Las
Vegas. Models are in good agreement on the timing of the low
tracking east to the Utah-Colorado Border by noon Monday and to the
Continental Divide by Monday evening, but diverge on the track with
the GFS taking the low farther north to the Park-Gore Ranges before
moving east of the Divide while the mean European ensemble continues
to take it to the south along the San Juan Mountains. The other
model tracks generally lie between these two. Still lean toward the
European ensemble on this storm as it has kept good run-to-run
consistency and has the better match with the satellite imagery.

Warm temperatures continue today running eight to 12 degrees above
normal with mostly clear skies. With the low moving into the Great
Basin today, the pressure gradient aloft tightens with H500 winds
approaching 65 to 75 kts over eastern Utah and far Western Colorado.
Look for stronger south to southwest winds in these areas this
afternoon gusting 25 mph in the lower valleys and gusting 35 to 45
mph over the higher terrain. Expect these winds to keep going
through the evening and overnight along and lee of the higher
terrain generally south of the I-70 corridor. As the low and
associated cold front tracks across the region west to east Monday,
stronger winds will continue and may feel a bit blustery as
temperatures drop to near normal across the northern areas and to
five to ten degrees below normal across the southern areas. Clouds
will move in ahead of the front early Monday with light showers
developing over the Abajo, La Sal and San Juan Mountains, and the
Uncompahgre Plateau through the morning, spreading across most of
eastern Utah and Western Colorado through the afternoon with snow
levels running 6-7000 feet. Little accumulation of rain or snow will
occur with these early showers as there isn`t much moisture
accompanying this low pressure system. The heavier snow will come
later with the wrap-around moisture to the north, but more on that
below.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The closed low is expected to move east of the Continental Divide
Monday evening then tracks to northwest Kansas by 12Z/Tue. However,
moisture wrapping around the system combined with more favorable
northwest winds will bring increased showers to northern and central
Colorado through Tuesday morning. Model snowfall output continued to
suggest advisory level snow for the Elkhead, Park, Flat Top, Gore
and Sawatch Mountains Monday night through Tuesday, mainly above 8
Kft. Showers largely diminish Tuesday night, though lingering
moisture and orographic lift may generate additional isolated light
showers. Elsewhere, quiet conditions will be the rule with afternoon
temperatures rebounding to around 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

From Tuesday night into Wednesday a short wave trough on the western
side of a broad low over western Canada moves across the Pacific
Northwest driving a cold front to northeast Utah and northwest
Colorado. This will bring another round of showers to the northern
mountains including the eastern Uintas and much of the northwest
Colorado plateau. Areas to south the will continue to experience
fair weather while temperatures climb to around 10 degrees above
normal. Little changes during the remainder of the week as periodic
weak disturbances result in off and on showers across the northern
and central mountains and adjacent valleys where the front remains
stalled through Saturday. Temperatures are expected to settle out
near 10 degrees above normal throughout the latter part of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Dry, southwest flow will bring sunny skies to the region today
with mostly clear skies tonight. Winds become breezy for most
TAF sites coming out of the south or southwest from 17Z to
02Z/Mon. Winds decrease and shift to normal drainage flows
during the evening.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL