561
FXUS63 KGLD 290901
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
301 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost possible in northeast zones around sunrise this
  morning.

- Elevated/Near Critical fire weather conditions are possible
  south for Tuesday/Wednesday afternoons.

- Severe weather is possible Wednesday afternoon/evening for
  areas along/east of Highway 25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are mainly clear
except for some scattered clouds where sprinkles are occurring and
should dissipate over the next hour. As of 200 AM MDT, temperatures
are ranging in the upper 30s to lower 40s with light/variable winds.

The main wx concerns expected for the short term period will be some
possible elevated/near critical fire wx conditions setting up over
southern portions of the CWA. Also for Wednesday/Wednesday evening,
the threat for severe weather returns for areas along/east of
Highway 25.

For today, the region will be looking at zonal flow aloft and a
surface ridge continuing to push through the region, allowing for
dry and sunny conditions to ensue area-wide. Westerly flow today
will give way to southerly flow tonight as the ridge shifts east,
and a lee-side trough sets up over the Front Range.

Going into Tuesday, southerly flow persists through the day, but
guidance shifts the trough to the west off the Front Range as a
front pushing slowly through the area. This will cause a wide temp
gradient to work up as northerly flow envelops much of the northern
CWA. Despite zonal flow aloft, a couple weak 700mb shortwaves do
work through the flow and could trigger a few isolated rw/trw.
Latest CAMs do show Yuma county in Colorado and Graham/Norton
counties in Kansas as the recipients if this does occur. Not
expecting impacts from these.

For Tuesday night on into Wednesday night, chances for rw/trw
potential do increase especially on Wednesday. The front from
Tuesday will stall over southern Kansas, forming a low over the
southwestern tier counties. A 700mb shortwave will also traverse the
NW tier of the CWA during this time. Easterly flow sets up over the
region initially Tuesday night into Wednesday, but eventually
southeast flow prevail for the afternoon/evening hours. Overnight,
northerly flow returns.

As the flow switches, looking for increased low level moisture
feeding into the area. A dryline does set up over the area, pushing
slowly westward as the afternoon/evening hours progress Wednesday.
The increased moisture/instability along the boundary will trigger
some potential strong to severe storms. SPC does have a Marginal
Risk for severe Highway 25 and east, running into a Slight Risk for
locales Highway 83 and east. West of Highway 25 not expected to see
strong/severe storms but will be dependent on how far west the dry
air retreats. All hazards (large hail, damaging winds and even
isolated tornadoes) are possible. While there is no WPC Excessive
Rainfall area at this time, some training of storms could create
localized issues and will have to be monitored.

Besides the potential for storms, extreme southern zones could see
the chance for localized elevated to near critical fire wx
conditions Tuesday/Wednesday afternoons. Wind criteria could be met
for a few hrs, and humidity has wavered in the upper teens for the
past several forecast runs. These areas are also some of the spots
that have received the least rain over the past week.

For temps, highs today will range in the 70s, with warmest areas
east of the Colorado border. On Tuesday, mainly 70s are expected,
but areas south of I-70 will range around the 80F mark. Wednesday,
slightly warmer and above normal for many areas with 80s expected
south of a line from the Burlington, Colorado area over to Colby,
Kansas then southeast towards Grinnell, Kansas. North of this line,
mainly 70s are expected.

Overnight lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 40s west of
Highway 25. East of there, upper 40s to lower 50s. For Tuesday and
Wednesday nights, 40s are expected for most with warmest areas east
of Highway 83, where some locales Wednesday night could only see the
50F mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 113 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

At the start of the long term period, the area is under
southwesterly flow aloft as an upper level trough axis is crossing
the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will have recently moved
through, placing temperatures slightly below normal, only into the
middle-upper 50s to upper 60s. Light showers and a few rumbles of
thunder may continue for parts of the area through the day (25-35%
chance) and even on into the weekend (~20% chance) as weak
disturbances move through the generally zonal flow. The area will
undergo a warming trend beginning Friday, with temperatures climbing
into the middle 60s to low-mid 70s, upper 60s to middle 70s
Saturday, and middle 70s to low 80s Sunday. Overnight lows from 30s
to near 40 Thursday night-Friday morning to 40s Friday night, then
middle 40s to middle 50s through the remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
southwest wind under 10kts at taf issuance will slowly veer to
the west by 11z with speeds near 10kts. Winds continue to veer
to the northwest Monday morning, gusting up to 20kts from late
morning through early afternoon. Winds then back to the
southwest by late afternoon at speeds under 10kts, continuing to
back to the south then southeast at speeds under 10kts through
the rest of the taf period.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 15z.
From 16z through 00z, winds establish a westerly direction at
speeds up to 10kts, backing to the southwest at similar speeds
through the afternoon. Monday evening, winds continue to back
to the southeast at speeds under 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99