Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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722 FXUS63 KGLD 190453 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1053 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow is likely Friday night and Saturday morning for areas north of Interstate 70 in Colorado and north of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 27 in Kansas and Nebraska. An inch or two of wet snow will be possible in those areas. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Zonal flow is in place across the central CONUS with both the polar and subtropical jets active. Tonight, will see another weak wave move through bringing a chance for very light rain or snow showers to northeast Colorado and eastward along the Kansas and Nebraska border area. Similar to last night, measurable precipitation and impacts will be minimal. Low temperatures will be in the 30s. The very light precipitation chances will linger in the same area through the day Friday with mostly cloudy skies north of the Interstate but some sun possible in the afternoon south. High temperatures will range from the lower 50s where clouds persist in the north to the lower 60s to the south. Friday night, will see increasing chances for rain and snow with some phasing of disturbances in the northern and southern streams combined with upslope flow at the surface. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow by around 06z in northeast Colorado and about as far east as Highway 25 in Kansas and Nebraska during the overnight hours and into Saturday morning. Snow amounts continue to increase and now expecting 1 to 2 inches in those areas by Saturday morning. Rain and snow chances will begin to diminish Saturday afternoon then ending Saturday night. Temperatures will be much below normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 On Sunday will get a break from the precipitation with an upper ridge axis moving through. Highs will recover to the 60s to near 70 in northeast Colorado. Another weak wave will move through Sunday night as the ridge moves out, with a chance for light rain showers north of Interstate 70. It will also be breezy Sunday night as a southerly low level jet develops. Low temperatures will be in the 40s. For Monday and Tuesday, zonal flow will transitioning back to northwest flow ahead of a ridge building over the Rockies on Tuesday. Models show some light showers/isolated thunderstorms both days, but confidence is rather low. Instability is minimal on Monday afternoon and near zero on Tuesday. There does appear to be a weak wave on Monday in the zonal flow as well as a cold front early in the day, which may trigger a few showers or isolated storms, but hard to find anything on Tuesday with the building ridge. Highs will be in the 70s on Monday then 60s on Tuesday behind the weak front. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s. On Wednesday, will transition to a southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the next trough digging into the Desert Southwest. Energy ejecting ahead of that system across the plains will result in chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. There is a sliver of instability during the afternoon currently forecast to be along the Colorado and Kansas border area, with around 500 j/kg of SBCAPE and deep layer shear of around 40 kts, suggesting a possible low end severe risk. It is still several days out and confidence in those kind of details is lacking at this point. High temperatures will bounce back into the 70s and lows will be in the 40s. On Thursday, the western trough is forecast to lift into the central plains and across the area. Depending on where the associated surface features end up, there should be a better chance for showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front and/or dry line, as well as chance for wraparound showers and isolated thunderstorms further west. However, there is low confidence seven days out on where these features might ultimately reside. Temperatures will warm into the lower 80s for highs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 VFR expected to prevail over both KGLD and KMCK through the majority of the 06Z TAF period. Winds will remain light and variable as they become more southerly around sunrise Friday morning. Tomorrow afternoon, winds will become easterly to northeasterly at 5-15 kts. After 03Z, KGLD and KMCK could see some light rain showers move in from the west, with chances increasing for the remainder of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...KMK