Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 261123
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Fair weather continues today as surface high pressure builds over
the region. A reinforcing dry front, currently extending over the
region will continue its passage towards the coast this morning.
Behind the boundary, a drier and cooler airmass will prevail. A few
shortwaves/vort maxes embedded in the southwest flow aloft will
continue to move over SE TX. However, precipitation is not
anticipated given a dry sub-cloud layer (PWATS at or below 0.6
inches). Highs will generally be from the upper 60s (far inland)
into the low 70s elsewhere. A quiet and slightly cooler night is
expected with lows into the low 40s to low 50s.

A broad upper-level trough will make its way to the Plains on
Wednesday, increasing vorticity/forcing aloft. Deterministic models
suggest PWATs into the 0.7 to 1.0 inch range during the day. In
addition, latest Hi-Res/CAMS bring isolated showers/storms for
portions of the region. Therefore, have introduced slight chances
during the day (15 percent). Highs mainly into the upper 60s to low
70s.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Not much has changed regarding the long term outlook. Increased
mid/upper ridging coupled with the return of LL onshore flow will
trend temperatures and humidity levels upward as we approach the
end of the week. We are still expecting a chilly start to your
Thursday, with sunrise temps in the 40s to low 50s (mid/upper 50s
on the coast). By afternoon, most locations warm well into the
70s. Friday will be similar but with slightly higher temperatures.
We start to crank the heat over the weekend and into Monday.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended upward with
mid/upper pressure heights over the last 24 hrs, from a peak 500MB
height of ~585 dam to closer to ~588 dam. LL flow remains
onshore, pushing humid tropical air northward from the Gulf and
into southeast Texas. For inland areas, these trends are forecast
to yield low 80s temps w/ ~60 degree dew points on Saturday, then
low/mid 80s temps w/ low/mid 60s dew points on Sunday, and
mid/upper 80s w/ mid/upper 60s dew points by Monday. That
temperature/dew point combo on Monday would result in low 90s heat
index values. Since the Gulf waters remain on the cool side,
temperatures at the beaches are expected to be 5-10 degrees
cooler. Sat-Mon overnight lows are forecast to generally be in the
60s.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light to
moderate northwest to north winds. Winds will become light and
variable in the evening.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Southeasterly swell has managed to be more stubborn, resulting in
the extension of the Small Craft Advisory for the 20 to 60 NM
waters through early afternoon today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  45  70  47 /   0   0  20  20
Houston (IAH)  72  49  73  50 /   0   0  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  70  58  69  58 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
     375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self


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