Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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399 FXUS64 KHGX 301734 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Light winds, plenty of near-surface moisture, and mostly clear skies are allowing for areas of fog and stratus early this morning. Latest nighttime microphysics satellite imagery show a widespread deck of stratus surging northward across the Coastal Bend/Matagorda area. Further north, fog continues to develop, especially across our far northern counties. With dewpoint depression values near 1-2 degrees; expect fog developing and expanding in the next few hours. Fog and stratus should gradually burn/lift through mid/late morning as daytime boundary layer mixing occurs. No significant weather impacts are expected today. Surface high pressure centered to our east will continue to surge warm and humid southerly flow across SE TX. Slightly warmer temperatures that yesterday can be expected today with highs mainly into the mid to upper 80s. Return surface flow and zonal flow aloft will bring different impulses of energy that combines with diurnal heating will be enough to produce isolated to scattered rain and storms. The best chances will be south of I-10. Stratus will make another surge north bringing back cloudy conditions. There is also a potential for fog; however with winds slightly stronger the coverage should be patchy. Rain and storm chances continue on Wednesday thanks to daytime heating, increasing PWs and weak mid-level shortwaves. A stronger shortwave trough will move over the Plains by Wednesday, reaching our western counties by late Wednesday night. This system will bring the best potential for showers and storms during the short-term period. JM && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A series of mid to upper level disturbances along with mid level vort maxes will continue to pass through Southeast TX during the second half of the work week. Southeasterly flow will prevail through much of the long term period and will continue to transport pulses of low level moisture into the region. PWs can be as high as 1.8 inches at times. With sufficient moisture and instability in place, along with the mid to upper level disturbances passing overhead, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the end of the work week. For the weekend, NBM solution has less chances of rain with showers and storms to be more isolated in nature. By the start of the upcoming week, the global models indicate drier conditions as mid level ridging builds over the region. A consequence to this, would be warmer temperatures. We will have temperatures warm a degree or two each day but staying in the 80s. However, by early next week, we could begin to see the highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s and with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, it will feel fairly humid, in particular during the morning hours. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR conditions and south to southeast winds will prevail this afternoon through this evening. MVFR/IFR CIGs and patchy fog should develop overnight/early Wednesday morning. Fog clears out shortly after sunrise with CIGs improving during the day. Isolated showers may begin to pop up across portions of SE Texas Wednesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Seas will continue to subside today, however, small craft should continue to exercise caution as seas diminish throughout the day. Generally moderate onshore winds are expected to develop Wednesday night and continue through much of the forecast period. This will result in seas of 4 to 6 feet over the offshore waters and 2 to 5 feet over the nearshore waters. Also, strong rip currents could occur across the Gulf facing beaches over the next few days. Periods of showers and storms can be expected through Friday. 24 && .HYDROLOGY... Below are the rivers that continue to be above flood stage: - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage - Trinity River (Romayor): Action Flood Stage, rising to Minor Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage - Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major Flood Stage - Bedias Creek (Madisonville): Minor Flood Stage - San Jacinto (New Caney): Action Flood Stage, rising to Moderate Flood Stage - San Jacinto (Cleveland): Action Flood Stage, rising to Minor Flood Stage 24 Previous Discussion Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024: 5-10 inches with isolated totals of 10-12+ inches of rainfall have fallen over the past 24 hours causing minor to major river flooding along the Trinity River and its tributaries. Lake Livingston is showing inflows of near 160,000 cfs and is currently releasing 98,400 cfs. Expected impacts include extensive inundation of agricultural land, widespread street flooding, and structure flooding along the lowest areas of the Trinity River. Many impacts are already occurring upstream of Lake Livingston and along tributaries. Additional impacts are expected to worsen over the next 6-12 hours downstream of the lake and will persist for several days. Additional minor to moderate river flooding is expected along the E.F. San Jacinto and Navasota Rivers. Primary impacts include street flooding and isolated structure flooding. Rises to action stage are expected across the majority of the San Jacinto and Brazos River basins. Most impacts will occur within the next 24-48 hours, with some impacts lingering into the end of the week. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 69 84 71 / 10 0 30 40 Houston (IAH) 86 71 84 73 / 10 10 30 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 72 80 74 / 20 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...03 MARINE...24