150
FXUS62 KILM 071337
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
937 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high
pressure into Thursday with unseasonably warm and humid
conditions expected. Mostly limited showers and storms expected
through Wednesday until a cold front moves through late in the
work week bringing a better chance of rain and even some
stronger storms. High pressure will then follow bringing drier
and cooler conditions into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Made some forecast changes for today to account for this rain
moving through this AM. Expect this area of rain to diminish and
push offshore along with the associated upper shortwave trough
with mostly isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
this afternoon, mainly along mesoscale boundaries due to the sea
breeze, differential heating and convective outflows.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ongoing scattered showers with isolated tstorms will be
traversing roughly the northern 1/2 of the ILM CWA this morning.
This in response to the mid-level s/w trof pushing across. Will
includes POPs in the low to mid chance categories specifically
for this pcpn. Otherwise, the s/w trof lifts E to NE of the FA
by midday taking the convection threat with it. Meanwhile, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s today, lower 80s at the beaches,
expect a sea breeze to develop and push not too far inland as
flow aloft will become W to NW. Have indicated a low chance for
convection along this sea breeze. Upper ridging to dominate
later today thru tonight with associated subsidence keeping
convection at bay tonight. Sfc pressure gradient should
tighten-some this aftn and remain thru tonight, keeping winds
active across the FA which should be enough to keep fog
potential to a minimum tonight. Lows tonight to remain closer
to summer-like with upper 60s to lower 70s commonplace.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The heat wave peaks on Wednesday with all places away from the
immediate coast topping 90. The mid level ridge axis will be
just offshore but it will still act to suppress all but
isolated convection. There will be quite a bit of instability
but with little to no forcing and fairly high LFC`s (approaching
5kft) once again convective coverage should be minimal. The
pattern starts to change on Thursday as a trough digs into the
Great Lakes pushing a cold front in our direction. This will
lead to a mainly late day increase in shower and storm coverage
as well as possibly their intensity.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
One last day of showers and storms on Friday before front moves
through and dry air arrives. Guidance is trending  a bit stronger
with the mid level wave driving the front possibly offering a
severe weather threat. The pattern shift is complete by
Saturday with the main upper trough in the East, allowing much
cooler and drier air to spill into the area. Expect a weekend
with seasonable highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the
mid 50s...much cooler than the mid week period but actually
quite close to normal. A secondary cool front may push through
on Monday. Any guidance showing precip with its arrival looks
highly suspect.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR thru the pre-dawn hrs, except inland terminals may
see periodic MVFR from convection associated with a mid-level
s/w trof passage thru midday. Included VCSH/VCTS unless pcpn
looks imminent and requires prevailing conditions. This mid-
level disturbance exits the area by early this aftn, leaving
subsidence aloft in its wake. Have indicated convection along
the sea breeze across the coastal terminals later this morning
thru the aftn. Winds become WSW to SW 10 kt this morning and
should increase 10-15 kt during the aftn/evening then only
slowly diminish to 5 to 9 kt during the overnight.

Extended Outlook...Looking at VFR dominating Wed into early Thu
with limited/isolated convection. Threat of more widespread
strong convection and periodic flight restrictions later Thu
into early Fri ahead of a CFP. Clearing later Fri with VFR
dominating thru Sat with high pressure prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Sfc high centered offshore from the SE States
Coast, will get slide slightly further E and S this period. At
the same time, sfc trof across the central Carolinas becomes
better established while frontal systems remain across the Mid-
Atlantic States. This will result in a dynamic sfc pressure
pattern conducive of SW to WSW wind directions. A tightening sfc
pg will also be active resulting in 10-15 kt speeds increasing
to around 15 kt today, with a 15 to 20 kt range to occur
tonight. Seas generally in a 2 to 4 ft range with a few 5
footers. SSE-SSW wind waves at 5 second periods to dominate with
an underlying small 10+ second period Easterly swell.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Southwesterly flow typical
of the warm season in place early in the period as high pressure
sits off the coast. The persistence of the fetch will add swell
energy to the wind waves and by Thursday we may attain SCA
criteria. Cold front moves through later Friday leading to
veering winds that will also abate in speed. The swell will
persist but also lessen. Wind gets all the way around to the
north on Saturday before backing kicks in as another weak
boundary approaches from the NW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MBB