199
FXUS61 KILN 111741
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
141 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will pass across the region today. High
pressure will build in behind this system and persist into
Monday. Low pressure will then approach from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Shower activity will mostly push east out of the region by
early afternoon as a surface trough moves through. A low chance
of a pop up shower or storm could occur in the far northeast
this afternoon in the diurnal instability in the post trough
environment. Otherwise, skies will become partly cloudy to
mostly sunny. Winds will pick up with some gusts to around 30
mph. Highs will be close to persistence in the lower 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure will develop into the area through the period.
Winds will diminish in the early evening, but some clouds could
linger before finally clearing out after midnight. Thereafter,
atmosphere will be quite dry. Maybe there could be some late day
diurnal cumulus.

It will be a cool night with lows in the mid to upper 40s. But
highs will be trending warmer and reaching the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After a dry start Sunday night and Monday morning under high
pressure, clouds will increase and a few showers and
thunderstorms may move in Monday afternoon ahead of low pressure
advancing from the west. As the low tracks to Southern Indiana
on Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will become likely to
categorical. Severe storms appear unlikely due to a weak wind
fields and modest instability. The system is forecast to move to
the East Coast on Wednesday, providing diminishing chances for
showers and storms. For Thursday and Friday, weak disturbances
interacting with an unstable airmass may trigger a few more
showers and storms.

Temperatures are forecast to be normal to above normal through
the period. Highs start in the mid 70s to low 80s Monday under
warm advection, before clouds, precip and cold advection cause
readings to retreat to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday. Insolation and warm advection will allow a return to
the mid and upper 70s on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday, west to northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with
gusts between 25 and 30 knots can be expected. In the wake of a
surface trof, weak CAA will result in FEW-SCT cumulus clouds.

For tonight, surface high pressure will build east into the
central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. Gusts will subside
after 00Z and sustained west to northwest winds will lower (5
knots or less overnight). Skies will be mostly clear.

On Sunday, as the surface ridge moves east, a mid level ridge
axis will slide into the middle Ohio Valley. Due to the surface
ridge axis, surface winds will vary from west/northeast over the
east half to southwest to west over the west half. Sustained
speeds will be 5 to 10 knots. Skies will be mostly clear (FEW
cirrus).

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions along with thunderstorms possible
Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman