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000
FXUS63 KILX 120734
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
234 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds through the afternoon today with gusts of
  30-40 knots at times.

- A warming trend will begin today. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
  are expected by tomorrow, lasting into late week. Lows in the
  50s and 60s are likely through the extended.

- Tuesday brings the next chance for severe weather for central
  Illinois as a low pressure system passes through the Midwest.
  Strong winds could also be associated with this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

There are some lingering showers this morning. but they should be
out of the area by mid morning. Once these move out, there will be a
period of dry weather that will last for 3 days, ending Monday
evening. As today`s departing system finishes its exit from the
area, strong winds are to occur. Wind gusts of 30-40 knots are
likely today out of the northwest. They are expected to relax by
this evening as the sun goes down.

Temperatures will begin to warm up to the upper 70s to low 80s by
Saturday and will hang around the 70s through the week for highs.
Next Friday, the highs will drop back down into the upper 50s to low
60s. Lows through the next week will range from 50s to 60s until
Thursday night when temperatures are expected to drop.

The next potentially impactful system expected to move through
central and southeastern Illinois appears to be Tuesday. A strong
low pressure system with an associated cold front is to sweep
through the area bringing strong to severe thunderstorms. MUCAPE
isn`t super impressive right now, with models only showing around
800-1000 J/kg. However, the bulk shear for that afternoon is around
60-70 knots. One thing central Illinois is good for is the severe
weather on high shear / low CAPE days. Moisture won`t be lacking
with Td in the low 60s that afternoon.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
showers will continue overnight, mostly effecting PIA, BMI, and
CMI, but also possibly DEC and SPI. So have VCSH for all sites
until morning. Skies should scatter out during the morning hours
and then clear out during the afternoon. Winds will be northwest
through the period with gust of 24-27kts tonight through
overnight and then increase tomorrow with gusts of 30-32kts. Winds
will decrease tomorrow late afternoon and then decrease further
tomorrow evening.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$