Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 241740
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing rain north of Hwy 2 will move off to the northeast by
  daybreak, though the glaze of ice will linger through later
  this morning.

- Potential for thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening,
  especially across southwest and south central Nebraska where
  storms may produce isolated wind damage, large hail, and heavy
  downpours.

- Uncertainty remains, but confidence increasing for potential
  blizzard conditions with significant snow accumulations,
  strong gusty winds, and whiteout conditions in blowing and
  drifting snow Sunday night through Monday and into Monday
  night across the majority of central and western Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Showers and thunderstorms moving through central NEbraska early this
morning are producing some locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures
north of Hwy 2 are also below freezing so expect a glaze of ice
will accumulate before the precipitation exits to the northeast.

After a brief break late this morning into early this afternoon
conditions will start to deteriorate as a strong Colorado low
starts to deepen. This system has very robust synoptic support
as a 170kt jet rounds the base of the upper level trof moving
through the western US, and a 60kt low level jet ahead of the
system with the axis just off to our east pulling up warmer air
with temperatures south of I-80 reaching the low/mid 60s this
afternoon. FGEN forcing will increase as the front extending
northeast from the low into central Nebraska strengthens will
become a focus to initiate some convection late this afternoon
into this evening. Bufkit soundings are not quite as robust with
their depiction of CAPE, though lapse rates aloft are still
quite steep and the environment in the vicinity of the front
will have ample shear with 0-6km bulk shear values around 40kt
across south central Nebraska. Expect there will be some storm
clusters/embedded convection developing this afternoon with
potential for storms from IMperial through North PLatte to
Callaway to produce some large hail and isolated wind damage.

As the low starts to move eastward across Kansas, cold air will
surge southward across Nebraska as the low level wind field
amplifies considerably and quickly transitions ptype over from
rain/mix to snow. Expect this transition will occur before dark
across the northwest sandhills, early tonight along the Hwy 83
corridor, and after Midnight out towards Hwy 281. Very strong
FGEn and deformation on the northwest side of the low will drive
high precipitation rates in a narrow band with potential for
significant snowfall. The upward trend in QPF and snow amounts
is substantial with a strong signal now evident in EFI/SoT
guidance in a narrow corridor across central Nebraska in an
environment with precipitable water values in the 90th
percentile with good moisture transport from both the Pacific
and the Gulf. The challenge continues to be uncertainty in
exactly where this band of heave snow will become established
with some guidance further to the west and some further tot he
east. The snow accumulation grids have been structured to align
with area outlined by the EFI/SoT guidance which has been
consistent over the last few runs, as well as the latest
mesoscale guidance which are quite robust with snow solutions
and advertise localized probabilities up to 80 percent for 6
inches or more of snowfall accumulation in this narrow band.

While there is uncertainty concerning the location of potential
heavy snowfall, confidence in potential for strong gusty winds
is high. The signal for strong winds has intensified in the
EFI/SoT guidance and probabilistic 50th percentile max wind
gusts is at or above 50 mph across the majority of the region
with sizable areas approaching 60 mph or more. These winds will
be a significant force multiplier for impacts as the combination
of heavy snow and very strong gusty winds is expected to yield
blizzard conditions with whiteout/near zero visibility and
significant blowing/drifting snow. across the majority of
central and western Nebraska from Sunday night through Monday
and continuing into Monday night even as active snowfall tapers
off.

The location of heaviest snowfall and expected amounts will be
adjusted throughout the event to reflect the latest trends in
guidance, radar, and satellite imagery so expect the forecast to
be dynamic and changing. Snow amounts will likely overperform in
some locations and underperform in others. Remember that it is
important to not focus solely on snow amounts since the impact
of even 2 to 3 inches of snow will be quite significant as it is
driven by winds at or above 50 mph. Blowing and drifting of any
snow will be considerable with whiteout conditions. Travel will
be quite difficult to impossible including along the I-80
corridor through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The system exits the area by Tuesday, though blustery winds will
continue with Patchy blowing snow possible into Tuesday. An
upper level ridge will build into the region Wednesday through
Saturday. Temperatures Tuesday will remain cold into the 20s and
30s, moderating into the 40s Wednesday, 50s to 60s Thursday and
Friday and 50 to 60 Saturday. The amounts of existing snowcover
will dictate the amount of warmup through Thursday, so confidence
in the warmup is below average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions continue across all of western
and north central Nebraska this afternoon, impacting both KLBF
and KVTN. Areas of patchy fog with some freezing drizzle has
developed resulting in reductions to visibility below 3SM.
Anticipate these conditions to persist through the valid TAF
period. A mix of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet are all
possible ahead of the frontal passage with a transition to snow
expected as temperatures quickly fall behind it later this evening.
Additionally, northeast winds will become breezy this evening
before backing towards the northwest, strengthening even
further. Widespread gusts of 30 to 45kts is expected to continue
overnight into Monday. Will rely heavily on observations and
radar trends in the coming hours as future amendments are
possible given a degree of uncertainty on the start and duration
of the mixed precipitation ahead of a complete transition to
snow.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ004-
094.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to
1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ004-029.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this
afternoon for NEZ005>010-024>029-038.
Blizzard Warning from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 AM
CDT /midnight MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ005>010-022>028-035>038-
056>059-069>071-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Viken


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