319
FXUS64 KLIX 050449
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1149 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Public forecast was updated to remove mention of evening
showers/storms, as they have dissipated. Traffic cams along
Interstate 55 would indicate that lowered visibilities reported
in the McComb observation are very limited in areal extent. No
other changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The CWA remains along the northern edge of an upper level ridge
where the flow is fairly zonal. North/northwest of the local area,
the upper level pattern is fairly complex with a couple troughs as
well as multiple shortwaves spread across this portion of the
country. One of those weak shortwaves, seen on water vapor
imagery, is moving northeastward across the mid Mississippi
Valley. This feature will play some part in convection the rest of
this afternoon/evening by providing some lift. The probably
bigger portion of initiation and maintenance comes from
instability created by abnormally warm surface temps. Mid 80s to
90 degrees aftn temps, while still cool aloft, and ample moisture
at the surface is a pretty textbook early summertime pattern with
the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked
by SPC, strong to possibly marginally severe storms with hail and
gusty winds will be possible. PW around 1.5" or less will be the
biggest limiting factor to convective coverage.

Sunday will be nearly a complete repeat of today with yet another
shortwave passing SW to NE across the lower MS Valley. Global models
suggest that the trajectory of this trough will be slightly closer
to the CWA than the one today. That would aide in small but
appreciable increase in coverage over the the CWA. However, still
looking at pretty much the same area of impact...SW MS and areas
of SELA northwest of an Gonzales to Bogalusa line. Probably won`t
see much, if any, convection southeast of that line.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat
zonal Monday before the ridge centered south of the local area
expands across the northern Gulf Coast and across portions of the
southeastern US. This will provide subsidence to stunt convection
as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance spread
is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in the
lower to mid 90s. Normal highs this time of year are in the lower
80s with records in the low 90s. So pretty likely to see some
records broken. Forecast heat indices peak in the mid 90s to 100
degrees Wed/Thu. Although not nearly warm enough for heat advisory
criteria, early summer heat often catches people off guard and
could see some local heat related impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The only ongoing flight restrictions are MVFR to IFR visibilities
at KMCB, where evening rainfall occurred. Those conditions could
deteriorate further toward sunrise, with LIFR or VLIFR conditions
at least possible, although probabilities aren`t particularly
high. At remaining terminals, anticipate MVFR to potentially IFR
conditions to redevelop around 10z, with conditions improving
somewhat between 14-15z.

The forecast scenario for the daytime hours Sunday is going to
look a lot like Saturday. Another shortwave is expected to slide
overtop the ridging over the Gulf. That will probably produce
scattered SHRA/TSRA again, potentially as early as 15z near KBTR.
Probabilities are high enough to mention again at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC.
While the threat isn`t zero at remaining terminals, it is too low
to mention in the body of the forecast. Similar to the last couple
days, as well, convection should dissipate prior to sunset Sunday.
VFR conditions are anticipated during the evening hours Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Surface ridge centered east of the region and extending across the
Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly winds. Small variations
in the pressure gradient from day to day will result in
fluctuations in wind speeds and seas but generally expecting
around 10 to 15kts through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  84  66  84 /  20  50  10  30
BTR  69  88  70  88 /  10  50  10  30
ASD  69  87  70  87 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  72  86  73  87 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  70  85  71  84 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  67  87  69  86 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...ME