714
FXUS66 KLOX 092122
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
222 PM PDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...09/214 PM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
near normal temperatures and no rain. Increasing night and morning
low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow
increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are
expected through Sunday, then cooling possible Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...09/213 PM.

A rather bland pattern next several days with very little
impactful weather and just minor day to day temperature changes.
An upper low remains centered near the UT/CO border while high
pressure is over the Pac NW. This pattern remains more or less the
same through the weekend. Falling surface pressures to the north
is beginning to push the marine layer north around Pt Conception
and expecting low clouds and dense fog to fill in there overnight.
Similar down south but with a deeper marine inversion there won`t
be much fog except near the coastal slopes. Temperatures will
remain where they are through the weekend for the most part,
within a couple degrees with no significant wind issues other than
typically breezy onshore interior winds each afternoon.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...09/222 PM.

Early next week a weak upper low is expected to move over the area
from the west. Along with that strengthening onshore flow will
generate a stronger and earlier sea breeze each day, possibly
requiring some low end wind advisories across the interior. The
marine layer will remain a persistent feature each day, possibly
deep enough to produce some drizzle at times with slower
clearing. High temperatures will cool a degree or two each day,
mainly coast and coastal valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1735Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3700 feet with a temperature of 14 C.

Moderate confidence in generally similar conditions over the next
24 hours as the previous. There is a chance for IFR/LIFR cats
tonight into Friday at KSMX (70% chance) and KSBP (30% chance).
Otherwise, high confidence in MVFR being common.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in current ceiling clearing by 18-20Z.
High confidence in MVFR ceilings returning as early as 03Z and as
late as 09Z. Southeast winds possible 08-16Z Friday, but high
confidence in winds staying under 08 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in current ceiling clearing by 18-19Z.
High confidence in ceilings returning as early as 05Z and as late
as 10Z. There is a 40 percent chance of ceilings initially IFR
for a few hours but MVFR should be most common. Southeast winds
will be more prevalent and longer lasting than usual.

&&

.MARINE...09/207 PM.

The rather large west to northwest swell from the past few days
is slower to subside than expected, but still on track to lower
steadily through Friday.

There is a 60 percent chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds
for the offshore waters Saturday night through Sunday, and a 30
percent chance for the nearshore waters of the Central Coast.
Otherwise high confidence in winds staying under SCA through the
weekend. Similar conditions likely to continue into early next
week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox