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000
FXUS64 KLUB 250103
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
803 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Convective temperatures were failed to be reached this afternoon,
and with no meaningful low level focus or forcing aloft,
convective initiation failed to occur. Could possibly see isolated
elevated convection develop later tonight as the low level jet
increases, but currently that prospect looks small and has little
support from the model suite. Will lower PoPs to just below
mention for the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Overcast skies across much of the area this morning have kept the
atmosphere relatively stable. Skies are beginning to clear at the
moment (with the exception of the far southeast Panhandle and
northern Rolling Plains). However, the resultant strongly capped
environment from the morning cloud cover should help inhibit any
widespread severe storms. Nonetheless, models indicate a 500 mb
shortwave moving passing through this evening. This combined with
what instability does end up developing from the aforementioned
clearing skies, along with ample moisture (dewpoints currently in
the 60s) should be enough to drive some brief convective activity.
The best chance of severe weather is expected to remain mostly
confined to the southern Rolling Plains, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threats. While tornadoes are unlikely,
soundings indicate around 30 kts of 0-3 km shear with profile winds
veering with height, and as such they cannot completely be ruled
out.

Any remaining isolated showers/thunderstorms should move out of the
forecast area by midnight. The main story overnight will be the
potentially record warm low temperatures in the mid 60s for the
Lubbock area. The synoptic pattern looks more favorable for possible
severe weather on Thursday, however the cap will remain an issue
with overcast skies again expected in the morning. This is discussed
further in the long-term section. Winds will increase Thursday
afternoon behind the dryline over the western South Plains and far
southwest TX Panhandle. As a result, blowing dust possibly leading
to periods of reduced visibility is expected over these areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Prospects for convective initiation improve Thursday evening, and
particularly overnight as the base of the upper trough and upper jet
eject northeast and across the region while driving a Pacific front
eastward. Ahead of this forcing, the southern extent of the dryline
should retreat by sunset and span much of the southeast South
Plains. Even though boundary layer cooling will increase SBCIN
through the evening, cooling of the column and stronger low-level
forcing as the front overtakes the dryline should trigger storm
development near the edge of the Caprock where MLCAPEs remain around
2500 J/kg. Linear forcing and mostly unidirectional effective shear
vectors would favor storms evolving into a squall line, although
there are some indications of sufficient surface based instability
which could open the door to embedded supercells and mesovortices.
On a side note, models and most CAMs key on a northward surge of
stronger 850 mb moisture advection from the eastern Permian Basin by
sunset - the nose of which could be a focus for storm initiation in
our area ahead of the cold front. Regardless of storm coverage,
storm motions will be swift given 50-60 knots of effective shear, so
PoPs dry out sharply from W-E overnight ahead of a dry, breezy and
cooler Friday.

Friday night features the dryline returning north to the Rolling
Plains as a broad surface low spools over the TX and OK Panhandles.
Southwest flow aloft will only amplify on Saturday as another
vigorous upper low shifts from the Four Corners by daybreak to the
Palmer Divide by nightfall. This swift motion implies a stronger
shove of westerlies over much of our area with the dryline likely
near or just beyond our eastern column of counties by peak heating,
so PoPs aren`t looking very promising for our eastern zones at this
time. The other side of the dryline is shaping up very windy as
mixing taps into 30-40 knots of 850-700 mb flow which should easily
stir up some blowing dust. As the upper low shifts even farther
north of the region Sunday night, a weak cold front sags south over
the region which now could linger well into Monday instead of
washing out. This casts more uncertainty with Monday`s high temps
and also the rate of Gulf moisture return. Moisture woes should ease
by Tuesday and Wednesday as moist southerlies expand to all of West
Texas complete with precip chances returning underneath a broad
fetch of unsettled southwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

KCDS to hang onto MVFR ceilings a bit longer, but even there VFR
conditions should develop early evening with a period of VFR at
all terminals this evening before MVFR and possibly IFR conditions
overspread the forecast area. Focus then shifts to a dryline
moving eastward across the area Thursday afternoon with improving
ceilings but also gusty south-southwest winds at KLBB and KPVW
while KCDS likely to hang onto stratus through most/all of the
afternoon. Precipitation and thunder are looking very unlikely
tonight and is expected to be delayed Thursday until after the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

There are no fire concerns today. Elevated to critical fire
conditions remain possible for Thursday, mainly across the
western South Plains and far southwest TX Panhandle. Sustained
winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible for these
areas along with relative humidities in the single digits.
However, ERCs remain low given the recent rainfall over the area
and this should temper the risk for wildfire growth.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...07