Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241800
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
100 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Winds remain the main story for today. The base of a deep 500 mb
trough will move across the area, along with a potent ~50 kt low-
level jet. Winds will gradually increase this morning, before
peaking this afternoon under the LLJ core. Forecast soundings
indicate winds aloft mixing down from around 550-600 mb. Increased
high cloud cover in the afternoon may somewhat curtail peak gusts,
however gusts to 70 mph are not unreasonable. Winds will be slightly
lower off the Caprock, however could still gust as high as 60 mph. A
High Wind Warning and Red Flag Warning remain in effect for much of
the forecast area. The thunderstorm threat remains minimal, mainly
due to a lack of available moisture. However strongest forcing
associated with the aforementioned upper trough combined with a
slight more southerly oriented flow may lead to a few isolated to
scattered storms across the far southeastern Panhandle and
eastern Rolling Plains. These are not expected to become severe.
Highs will top out in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Winds will
diminish by the evening, though remain elevated into the overnight
hours. Blowing dust is also a concern and may reduce visibilities
at times. Use caution if traveling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Upper-level troughing will remain over the forecast area through the
middle of the week helping to keep our temperatures cool along with
a few chances of light precipitation. Monday morning a surface cold
front will be moving south through the area. This front will bring
colder air into the region along with an increase in clouds. This
will knock high temperatures down 10-25 degrees below what we
observe today with the southwest Texas Panhandle having high temps
in the lower 40s and the Rolling Plains in the lower 60s. With lift
being enhanced along and just behind the front a few light rain
showers will be possible especially for locations on the Caprock.
Surface high pressure will settle into the forecast area Monday
night which despite the overcast skies should allow temperatures to
drop near to below freezing area wide. Temperatures will remain cool
on Tuesday with high temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to lower
60s. As another shortwave moves through the upper-level trough
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, isentropic ascent will
increase which should lead to another round of light rain showers.
Upper-level ridging will begin to move over the forecast area on
Thursday and remain overhead through Saturday which will help to
boost temperatures back above normal through next weekend. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Southwest winds are ramping up this afternoon with sustained winds
of 30 to 40 knots and gusts up to 50 to 60 knots possible. With
these high winds, blowing dust is likely with reduced visibility
at times to MVFR and potentially IFR conditions. There is a small
chance for thunderstorms at Childress this evening and therefore
any thunder mention was left out of this TAF issuance due to low
probability. Winds will slowly diminish to breezy overnight ahead
of a cold front that will pass through the three TAF sites
towards the end of the TAF period, late tomorrow morning. Lower
ceilings will fill in behind the frontal boundary and sites may
drop into MVFR prior to the end of this TAF period (18z tomorrow).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 11 AM to 10 PM today for
the South Plains and much of the far southern TX Panhandle with
sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph expected and gusts to 70 mph.
Fuels are slightly more moist elsewhere and despite temperatures
in the upper 70s off the Caprock, a Fire Danger Statement will be
in effect for counties not included in the Red Flag. Humidities
for all areas will fall to near 15%. Winds will gradually
diminish through tonight but remain gusty into the overnight
hours Monday morning. A cold front will move through the area
Monday morning which will bring a northerly wind shift along with
much cooler temperatures.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025-
027>030-033>036-039>042.

High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037-
039>042.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ038-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...11


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