Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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909 FXUS64 KLUB 131111 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 611 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Drier and warmer conditions can be expected today despite a cold front moving through the area. This cold front was currently moving southward across the region which will scour out low level moisture and low stratus. Winds at 850mb around 20-30kt will be able to quickly mix down to the surface after sunrise after stratus clears. Therefore, surface winds will increase shortly after sunrise and will generally relax through the afternoon as the pressure gradient lessens. Despite the cold front, temperatures will warm today closer to seasonal averages under mostly clear skies with increased thickness values. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Upper ridging will bring dry conditions and above average temperatures on Tuesday, with highs reaching near 90 across much of the South Plains region. A series of shortwave troughs along with increased shear and instability from daytime heating on Wednesday all suggest the potential for severe weather. While some uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing/placement of any storms, recent model/ensemble runs suggest perhaps a slightly later start time into Wednesday evening. As such, greatest chances would occur off the Caprock where the best shear/forcing would exist at that time. The latest PoP forecast reflects this thinking. Nonetheless, general storm chances remain for much of the forecast area from late afternoon onwards with a favorable upper pattern. An upper low over the Four Corners region will track southeastward on Thursday. SE surface winds behind a cold front will also bring in ample Gulf moisture to the region (GFS PWATs of 1.5 inches off the Caprock Thursday afternoon). As such, another round of severe weather is possible Thursday afternoon/evening although shear parameters look slightly weaker than Wednesday. A broad upper ridge will quickly displace the low on Friday bringing a return to hot and dry conditions. Combined with strengthening southwesterly winds, highs this weekend are expected well into the 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 The last of the IFR CIGS/visbys were exiting the terminals as of this writing. VFR is then expected for the remainder of the TAF period with breezy north winds today. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...01