Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 250445 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1145 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Sunday evening weather conditions look to remain fairly quiet
besides one key variable: the wind. A massive amount of wind energy
ahead of an approaching and deepening sfc low pressure system
leeward of the Rocky Mountain region of the CONUS and attendant
south-southwesterly extending cold front draped across western
Oklahoma and central Texas in cohesion with a stout upper lvl trof
which contain a southern stream nearing the state late Sunday into
early Monday. Simply put, this setup has present extremely windy
conditions across the Natural State during the day on Sunday which
will continue into Sunday night.

On Monday, the progression of the cold front eastward toward the
Natural State will promote the continuation of showers and
thunderstorms nearing the CWA as showers and thunderstorms will
likely be in progress along and ahead of the cold front as it
approaches the state from the west and sweeps eastward throughout
the day. Latest CAMS have the timing of this line of thunderstorms
entering the state later in the morning on Monday and exiting the
state later Monday evening. Timing will play a significant role in
the potential of limited severe weather with this overall system.
Instability looks to be the single variable that will be question
across most of the CWA as cloud cover and rain-cooled air ahead of
the front will look to limit CAPE values overall. The exception
where this may be less or a non-issue will be across southern and
specifically southeastern Arkansas where warmer daytime heating and
diurnal temperatures will be at their maximum at the same time that
the frontal boundary is expected to approach these areas. Damaging
winds will be the main concern with this overall storm system as the
storm mode looks to be a healthy QLCS or squall line of
thunderstorms. SRH values will be plentiful in the range of 300 to
600 m^2/s^2 depending on the CAMS run utilized with evident large
looping hodographs that would suggest a significant tornado
potential if not for storm mode (linear QLCS/squall line) and lack
of instability; however, with this being discussed, despite the
storm mode, QLCS tornadoes will be possible across southeastern
Arkansas or in any discrete cell ahead of the QLCS (which some CAMS
have shown is not completely out of the question, especially in far
southeastern Arkansas). Low level moisture will be plentiful with
dewpoint values in the upper 50s and low 60s across southeastern
Arkansas further promoting the the possibility of damaging winds and
an embedded tornado or two cannot be ruled out within the line of
storms. Large hail is not anticipated across the CWA as a lack of
sufficient instability will not promote strong updrafts to support
the development of severe hail across the CWA; however, smaller hail
below severe criteria is still possible. The cold front and likely
QLCS will complete the track across Arkansas and over the
Mississippi River by Monday night.

Tuesday will see the initial cold front move through the state and a
second, dry cold front move across the state in succession behind
the first. Temperatures throughout the day on Tuesday will struggle
and Tuesday morning`s low temperature will be noticeably cooler
across the CWA, especially in northern and western parts of the
state where a colder and drier airmass funnels into the region.
Expect weather conditions to become cooler and drier overall with
decreasing cloudiness across most of the CWA. Tuesday will begin a
dry period weather across the Natural State with sfc high pressure
building back into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

All guidance continues to point to the medium range being
considerably quieter versus the short term period. While a few
subtle differences exist between the model outputs, there is not
enough variability to lean one way or another.

Period initiates with broad troughing over the nations mid section
in the wake of Monday`s system. Trough will be flanked on both sides
by upper level ridging resulting in broad southwest flow aloft.
Surface high pressure to the north will keep northerly surface winds
in place and temperatures a few degrees below average.

Aforementioned surface high slides to the southeast and will be
located over the SE Conus by the end of Friday. Winds will turn to
the south and with upper ridging moving overhead, temperatures in
turn will warm to above average by Friday.

Upper ridge does flatten out through the weekend but a dry forecast
is anticipated in spite of an increase in moisture. Guidance is
introducing a few showers over the north Sunday night but other than
that, the extended period does appear to be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Convection will start to move into the state overnight and impact
TAF sites before sunrise across WRN sections. Central sections
will see convection by late morning into the afternoon hrs...and a
bit later further E/SE. Windy conditions are expected along/ahead
of this convection...with some gusts over 30 kts at times. Winds
will relax some behind/within the convection (outside TSRA winds).
Some improvements are possible by late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  64  43  57 /  40 100  50   0
Camden AR         58  68  43  62 /  30 100  10   0
Harrison AR       54  61  35  49 /  90 100  10   0
Hot Springs AR    57  65  40  60 /  60 100  10   0
Little Rock   AR  59  69  45  62 /  50 100  30   0
Monticello AR     59  72  49  66 /  10 100  60   0
Mount Ida AR      57  65  38  59 /  80 100  10   0
Mountain Home AR  55  62  38  52 /  70 100  20   0
Newport AR        56  64  46  58 /  30 100  70   0
Pine Bluff AR     58  70  46  62 /  30 100  40   0
Russellville AR   57  65  39  57 /  70 100  10   0
Searcy AR         56  66  42  59 /  40 100  50   0
Stuttgart AR      57  67  47  60 /  30 100  60   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...62


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