Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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853 FXUS64 KLZK 290533 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered convection across much of the forecast area. This activity is supported by persistent southerly low level flow, acting on outflow boundaries and a remaining cold dome created by previous morning convection. 19z instability analysis indicates that the previous convection has affected available instability due to overturning across all but southeast sections of the forecast area. Minor recovery is expected through late afternoon. Latest CAM output has been consistent with earlier runs regarding developing a linear type MCS late this afternoon across central Oklahoma, where instability is much higher. This system then will move east across the forecast area overnight. This system should provide impactful rainfall rates. The greatest chance for organized severe convection will be across extreme southwest sections of the forecast area. Some residual activity will end from west to east during the day Monday. Dry conditions are expected for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast at times from Wed-Fri across the state. At the sfc, warm/humid conditions will persist across much of the region with above normal temperatures likely each day. Aloft, H500 flow will largely be out of the SW ahead of a trough moving from the western US toward the Great Lakes. Mid-level ridging is expected to build across the SE US which will further influence the amplified flow across the region. Ahead of the trough, several weak disturbances traversing the SW flow will help contribute to showers and thunderstorms developing across the area. By late week a developing sfc cyclone is expected to drag a cold front across the state which will help focus precip development across AR while the H500 trough swings northeast of the area. Somewhat cooler temperatures along with a brief break in rain chances are possible in the wake of these systems as sfc ridging builds in. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Expect MVFR CIGS associated with the shower and thunderstorm activity that continues across Arkansas from early Monday morning into the early afternoon on Monday. The northern and southern sites will continue to see rain and isolated thunderstorm potential early Monday morning into the midday on Monday with the southeastern sites of KPBF and KLLQ seeing rain holding on until early Monday afternoon. CIGS will lift to VFR category across the state from west to east beginning Monday midday into Monday afternoon. Surface wind gusts in excess of 24 knots will be expected across the southeastern terminals of KPBF and KLLQ. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 75 58 83 62 / 50 10 0 0 Camden AR 78 59 84 61 / 50 10 10 10 Harrison AR 77 54 83 59 / 10 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 79 58 83 61 / 30 0 10 10 Little Rock AR 78 62 85 64 / 50 10 0 0 Monticello AR 75 63 84 64 / 70 10 10 10 Mount Ida AR 80 57 84 61 / 20 0 10 10 Mountain Home AR 78 55 83 60 / 20 0 0 0 Newport AR 74 60 81 61 / 60 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 75 61 83 62 / 70 10 10 0 Russellville AR 79 58 84 60 / 20 0 0 0 Searcy AR 75 58 83 60 / 60 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 75 62 82 63 / 70 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ004-005-014-024- 031-032-039-042>044-052>055-062-063-066>068-103-112-113-121>123- 130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313- 340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...74