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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242324
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

There is a risk for severe weather the next several days that we
are keeping an eye on. First is this afternoon in the northern
Permian Basin where a great deal of instability and shear are
located, however an upper ridge will act to keep a lid on most
convection. A weak front moved into the area this morning and may
act as a surface focus though recent observations show it has
mostly dissipated. This is a conditional severe weather day where
any storms that form have a chance to become severe with those
chances being somewhat low.

Things change tomorrow as the upper ridge shifts off to the east
and an upper trough moves into New Mexico. Increasing lift
moving over an established dryline in the eastern Permian Basin
will cause a line of severe thunderstorms to form. The timing of
the system is later than usual with the upper lift overcoming the
loss of daytime heating for storms to form in the early evening
and continue overnight before moving east just after midnight.

Lows tonight will again be in the 60s with tomorrow reaching the
80s and 90s. Drier air moving in tomorrow night behind the
dryline allows lows to drop down into the 50s and give some relief
to our recent muggy mornings.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

We`ll catch a break Friday with temperatures running around normal
before we see the next potent short wave troughs Saturday. Cluster
analyses indicate that this system is coming in a bit slower and
lower in latitude than in previous runs, which means the position
of the dryline will be crucial in convective development along and
east of the dryline and in fire weather concerns west of the
dryline. There`s a fair amount of uncertainty on the eventual
position of the dryline Saturday, with the mean NBM position
extending roughly along a Gail to Big Lake line at the time of max
heating. It should also be noted that models sometimes don`t
handle PBL mixing well in dynamic situations and that, should
model trends keep slowing the trough, then pressure falls and
backed winds back in the dry air will inhibit eastward translation
of the dryline to maybe a Lamesa to Midland to Fort Stockton to
Boquillas line. In any event, there does appear to be a fair
amount of capping as evident in the strength of the EML, so
convection will struggle to initiate, even over the elevated heat
sources of the Glass and Davis mountains. It may be that
convection won`t initiate until after dark Saturday night when the
Pacific front shoves everything east of the Permian Basin. PoP
forecasts reflect the most likely scenario, with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms across the far eastern Basin and the
western Low Rolling Plains Saturday evening.

Short wave ridging will then take hold for Sunday through Tuesday,
with temperatures somewhere around normal Sunday and warming a few
degrees each day. An active pattern regime does appear Tuesday
and beyond, with perhaps a decent chance of precipitation across
much of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico as the dryline
becomes active again. Stay tuned. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Winds become southerly to southeasterly at all terminals this
evening, with gusts to 20-30kt expected at West Texas terminals as
the nocturnal low-level jet develops. Low ceilings will develop
into MAF by around 09Z and persist until mid-morning, with rapid
improvement thereafter. These ceilings should remain to the east
of FST, with VFR conditions otherwise prevailing. Winds will shift
to the southwest between 15-18Z Thursday, becoming gusty with
gusts to 35-45kt expected at CNM/HOB, and around 20-30kt
elsewhere. Localized blowing dust is possible during the
afternoon, with storm development not anticipated until near/just
beyond the end of the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

An upper level trough is going to bring increasing westerly winds
and drier air from southeastern New Mexico and the western Permian
Basin, south to the Big Bend tomorrow. The most critical
conditions will be in the upper Trans Pecos from Roswell to Pecos
where winds will be strongest and RFTI values reach 6-7 with a few
isolated 8. Winds ease slightly Friday but will still likely be
strong enough to create critical fire weather conditions. Winds
strengthen again Saturday continuing the critical fire threat
before easing up on Sunday finally relieving fire weather
conditions. The wind direction is expected to maintain a mostly
westerly direction.

An RFW will likely be needed for much of the same area as
Thursday, for both Friday and Saturday though have held off at
this time due to uncertainty that far out. Overnight recoveries
through Sunday night will be poor for most locations. Better
recoveries are not expected until Monday and Tuesday when
increasing moisture moves in from off the Gulf of Mexico.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  88  58  85 /  20  10  50   0
Carlsbad                 59  90  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   68  89  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            65  94  58  88 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           60  81  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    62  88  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    52  87  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  89  58  84 /  10  10  30   0
Odessa                   68  90  59  85 /  10   0  30   0
Wink                     64  94  57  87 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ to 11 PM CDT /10 PM
     MDT/ Thursday for Andrews-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa
     Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ Thursday to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Friday for Eastern Culberson County-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 10 PM MDT Thursday for Chaves
     Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
     night for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night
     for Central Lea County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...84