Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 242305
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
705 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Mostly dry and pleasant weather continues through the short term as
mid-level ridging builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South.
Significantly drier mid-level air has already filtered in over the
area, which will help inhibit rainfall chances over most of the
area. However, a few isolated showers could remain possible over the
Atlantic waters this afternoon as a very diffuse frontal boundary
moves over the area.

Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals as surface winds veer
more northeasterly by this afternoon. High temperatures both
afternoon will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the mid
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Mid level ridging centered over the Carribean Sea will extend
northeastward into the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
on Tuesday before shifting eastward into the Atlantic Tuesday
night into Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure centered over
the western Atlantic will continue to bring mainly dry conditions
to South Florida during this time frame. Southeasterly wind flow
will continue on Tuesday, however, as the day progresses the winds
will gradually start to diminish as the pressure gradient across
the region begins to relax. Southeasterly wind flow on Wednesday
will slowly begin to veer and become more southerly later in the
day as a surface frontal boundary starts to approach from the
northwest. This will allow for a moderating trend in temperatures
to continue through the middle of the week. High temperatures on
Tuesday will generally range from around 80 across the east coast
metro areas to the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest
Florida. On Wednesday, these temperatures will rise into the lower
80s across the east coast to the mid to upper 80s over interior
Southwest Florida.

On Wednesday night into Thursday, a deepening mid level trough
will push across the Eastern Seaboard while the surface frontal
boundary pushes southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Model
guidance continues to show an area of low pressure developing
along this front to the north, and then rapidly moving
northeastward and intensifying off of the Carolina coastline as
Thursday progresses. Out ahead of this frontal boundary, the
chances of showers will increase from west to east later on
Wednesday night and then overspread the area on Thursday. Model
guidance is coming into better agreement that cyclogenesis will
take place to the north of the region which will help to keep the
best dynamics and instability off to the north as well.
Uncertainty still remains high, however, as guidance still remains
in disagreement in regard to the timing of the actual frontal
passage. There still should be enough lift and instability with
diurnal heating in place to support a slight chance of
thunderstorms at this time as the front moves closer. This will
continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High
temperatures on Thursday will generally rise into the lower 80s
across most areas.

For the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend, a
strong area of high pressure will push into the Southeastern
portion of the country as well as the Florida Peninsula. This will
bring a return of dry conditions along with the potential of below
normal temperatures especially during the nighttime hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with northeasterly
winds gradually strengthening this evening. A few sprinkles could
move across the east coast sites early this evening, but chances
remain low. Winds will veer further as the high sets in and become
predominantly from the east tomorrow. Breezy sustained winds 10-15KT
with gusts up to 25 kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Hazardous marine conditions remain across local waters with a
moderate to fresh northerly breeze expected today. Dangerous seas up
to around 6 to 9 feet will be possible across the Atlantic waters
through Monday evening with north to northeasterly flow expected to
end the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
Atlantic waters until Monday evening.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all Atlantic
beaches through Tuesday, with an elevated risk expected for the
Gulf beaches today. While conditions will improve for the Gulf
beaches early next week, the elevated risk will likely remain for
all Atlantic beaches through at least mid-week due to lingering
swell and increasingly easterly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            69  77  69  80 /  20  10   0   0
West Kendall     66  80  66  83 /  10  10   0   0
Opa-Locka        67  80  68  83 /  20  10   0   0
Homestead        68  80  69  82 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  69  77  69  80 /  20   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  69  77  69  80 /  20   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   67  80  68  83 /  20  10   0   0
West Palm Beach  66  77  67  80 /  20   0   0   0
Boca Raton       68  78  69  81 /  20   0   0   0
Naples           64  82  66  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Simmons


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