Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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432 FXUS62 KMFL 022311 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 711 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Definitely a quieter evening over SFL compared to yesterday thanks to encroaching ridging and associated warmer temperatures aloft. Scattered showers have developed near the Gulf breeze in SW FL although this activity has struggled to obtain vertical development and produce lightning. This generally weak activity will likely linger a couple hours into the early evening over that area but otherwise a generally dry and mild tonight is expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 High pressure and ridging in the low to mid levels continues to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida, keeping a typical easterly regime in place. Convective activity will be very limited today and Friday as drier air starts to filter in. Anything that does manage to develop along sea breeze collisions will be heavily focused over interior and Southwest Florida areas. Outside of a rouge shower or thunderstorm, prevailing conditions will be quite nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Across interior and southwest portions of the area, afternoon highs will be a bit warmer in the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 524 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Little to no fluctuation in the overall synoptic weather regime the long term period, as stout mid-level ridging will maintain predominately easterly flow across South Florida into next week. This easterly surface flow will allow for the Atlantic sea-breeze circulation to progressively move inland, and act as the foci for convective initiation primarily over the interior. East coast metro areas may experience a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm during the early afternoon and towards the mid to late afternoon for interior and southwest portions of the area. Overall rain chances remain low through the period (generally below 20) as drier air and the absence of synoptic forcing should limit any widespread convective development. For the few showers and thunderstorms that are able to develop, the most likely areas to experience convection will be across the Everglades and Southwest Florida, owing to the aforementioned easterly flow regime. Temperatures will be near to just above normal through the extended period. The highs will increase into the upper 80s across southwest Florida and the interior region, while remaining in the low to mid 80s along the Atlantic Coast. The overnight lows will be in the 60s, except for low to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although showers and storms in the vicinity of KAPF will be possible over the next hour or two. A few showers may be possible near the east coast Friday morning but feel probs are too low to explicitly mention in this issuance. Generally easterly winds prevail through the period with gusts to 20kts possible during the day on Friday. KAPF will see an afternoon wind shift to the W-SW again. && .MARINE... Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Mostly benign conditions will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend. There will be chances for showers and a few thunderstorms each day, which could create locally hazardous conditions. Other than the convective threat, there is not expected to be concerns for marine conditions. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Winds will be around 10-15 kts out of the east. && .BEACHES... Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Breezy easterly flow will lead to an elevated risk for rip currents across all Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Highest rip current risk today will be maximized across the Palm Beach County beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 73 84 73 84 / 10 10 20 30 West Kendall 70 85 70 86 / 10 10 10 30 Opa-Locka 72 86 72 86 / 10 10 10 30 Homestead 72 84 73 84 / 10 10 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 73 83 73 83 / 10 10 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 73 83 73 83 / 10 10 20 30 Pembroke Pines 73 87 73 87 / 10 10 20 30 West Palm Beach 70 84 71 84 / 10 10 10 30 Boca Raton 72 84 72 84 / 10 10 20 40 Naples 70 89 70 88 / 30 10 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...Carr